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April 14th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 14, 2020

5:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 opened gap up from 2760 to 2804, hit a daily high at 2852, and closed 2846.

The primary (green/white) count is that minor 3 of major [1]-1-C3-SCV completed at 2819.  The minor 4 wave completed at 2721 as a single zig-zag.  The minor 5 wave higher is expected to complete major [1] at the initial target of 2856 or a little higher at 2872.   Once major [1] completes, the major [2] wave will typically retrace to the 50%/62%78% Fibonacci area, which is at 2524/2444/2338 (basis 2856).

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

25 Responses to “April 14th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    So much chart resistance and even more moving average resistance in the 2856 to 2941 area.

    13-week EMA = 2856
    20-month SMA =2888
    50-day SMA = 2891
    13-week EMA = 2920
    62% Fib (drop 3392 to 2192) = 2937

  2. Thanks for the update Pugsma; And also my indicators are in overbought territory and aligned for// pending for a new sell signal. This is the second sell signal in 2020 – first was Feb 14th. Should be an interesting few days but its hard for me to see what would kick off this decline given the bullishness of this rally?

  3. Bill S. said

    CNN Fear/Greed indicator still showing no sign of capitulation by the bears yet, not even back to neutral. Seems like there might be enough short squeeze fuel left to push up above 2900 during this OpEx week.

    https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

  4. aka2106 said

    Steve – is there a level to watch for when you would say major [1] has completed and [2] is starting? Thanks

  5. chrys50 said

    Steve – would a move below 2808 be first indication that major wave [1] is completed and confirmation below 2721?

  6. pugsma said

    OT: This Major [2] wave lower is likely going to be messy and ugly both in price and time. The US economy is NOT going to easy to reignite with the virus still around. Consumer spending is likely to come back slowly into the summer.

    • pugsma said

      This is the text message that I sent my family on Thursday, April 9th.

      Basically from a market psychology perspective this first major wave up (green [1] on my chart at 2856 target) is the “hope” rally. Hope for a solution to COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economy recovery. The next wave back down (green [2] on my chart at 2524 to 2338) is the “reality” drop due to fully understanding the situation. People will have to come to grips with the facts that’s it’s going to be hard to re-start the economy due to a slow resumption to “normal human behavior. Only when this slow start gives way to a full re-start of the economy will the market make the even bigger move higher (green [3] on my chart at 3414).

      Hope everyone stays healthy and has a Happy Easter weekend.

  7. aka2106 said

    Steve – when you say Major [2] is going to be ugly in price and time do you mean the timing will be swift? Or do you think it’s a messy chop that fatigues the bulls?

  8. pugsma said

    Housing Keeping: I’m currently on an 8 hour round trip drive today. The Wednesday update will be late tonight.

  9. pugsma said

    A lot of talking heads say we’ll see a “V”, “U” or “L” recovery.

    PUG Stock Market is calling for a “W”

  10. hh101063 said

    good morning – will you volunteer a reading of the drop from yesterday’s 2850 down to today’s 2766 so far. Saw your response that it being minute 2 of minor 5 of Major 1 is not likely. In that case are there any other likely alternatives than it being the first move down of Major 2? Too early to suggest the likely looks of Major 2? Thanks.

  11. pugsma said

    As I cautioned yesterday afternoon with the SP500 at 2840+, small caps (IWM) and financials (XLF) were weak NOT confirming. Both IWM and XLF have broken belie their Monday lows (SP500 = 2721 equivalent). Also the DJIA is very close to breaking below Monday’s low.

    • aka2106 said

      Steve thanks for that. Are there any rules to observe in terms of possible patterns for Major [2]? You mentioned a triple zig zag and only time will tell as still no confirmation [1] is over. I was just curious if the pattern we’ve seen so far in [1] rules our or favors any particular pattern.

      • pugsma said

        The wave 2 pattern or form is not affected by wave 1. Only the typical wave 2 price move of a 50% to 62% Fib of wave 1 is expected. I wound not rule out a deeper 78% or even a 88% Fib for this major [2].

      • OT Great commentary! my long trip home last night had me listening to some of the most bullish commentary I’ve heard in some time (bloomberg, cnbc, fox business , concerning/confirming good chance for 2 wave.

        • pugsma said

          Yes, the whole world was bearish on March 23rd calling for SP500 to plunge to 1700 to 1300. But PUG SMA was bullish for a move up to 2856.

          Now most have turned bullish at 2856 and PUG SMA is looking for a move down to at least a 50% Fib at 2524.

  12. Bill S. said

    No reason at all to doubt the Primary count at this point. But is it still possible that today’s decline could be wave c of a running flat for minor 4?

  13. Just looking at the futures and was wondering if it is possible we were just completing minor 4 (a/b/c) with the last push up into minor 5 for end of the week to cap off Major 1?

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