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March 24th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 24, 2020

10:20 pm EST:   The SP500 gaped up from 2237 to hit 2437 mid-day, retreated to 2360 and rallied to close at 2447.

The primary (green) count is that minor 5 of major [5]-PC-C2 ended at 2192 has a major [5] ending diagonal.   The move up to 2301 was minor 1 of major [1]-P1-C3.  The drop back to 2199 was minor 2 of major [1].   Now the move up to 2449 (thus far) is a minor 3 wave, that has a target of 2485, where minor 3=2.62*minor 1.  The minor 4 pull-back should be 23% to 2419.  Finally minor 5=1 at 2528 to major [1].

The alternate (blue) count is that the major [4]-PC-C2 wave is playing out as a 3-3-5 flat.   Major [3] ended at 2281.  Minor A of major [4] complete at 2467 and minor B at 2192.  Now minor C is headed for C=1.62*A target of 2493.  The 23%/38% Fib for major [4] is at 2478/2606.   Once the major [4] completes, there will be major [5] down that drops below 2192.  The major [5] targets based of major [4] at 2467 (thus far) are [5]=0.62[1] =2133, [5]=0.78[1] = 2047 and major [5]=[1]=1926.  The 50% Fibonacci retracement for the C1 bull market is at 2031.   Note, the major [4] remains valid below the major [1] low of 2856.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

16 Responses to “March 24th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. petemerch said

    Thanks.
    At what point do you eliminate the primary… and the alt becomes primary?

  2. pugsma said

    OT: Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke was just on CNBC. He was a financial wizard during the 2008 Financial Crisis. This country owns a debt of gratitude to this man and his team for “engineering” a series of monetary packages to get us through that event, which truly had the potential to wipe out the US Financial system.

    Chair Bernanke says this COVID-19 event is NOT even close to 2008 and certainly NOT the 1929 Great Depression, for which he is considered one of the foremost scholars. He compared COVID-19 to a snowstorm or natural disaster event. It will likely be a short-live financial event that will see the US financial system emerge on the other side as strong as before.

    Great to hear the perspective of a truly brilliant financial mind versus all the big mouth doom and gloomer wanna be experts.

  3. pugsma said

    This is the most important chart to watch for the next 8 trading days:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYADV%3A%24NYTOT&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p16500670031

    • pugsma said

      What Is the Breadth Thrust Indicator?
      The Breadth Thrust Indicator is a technical indicator used to ascertain market momentum. It is computed by calculating the number of advancing issues on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), divided by the total number of issues (advancing + declining) on it, and generating a 10-day moving average of this percentage.

      The indicator signals the start of a potential new bull market when it moves from a level of below 40% (indicating an oversold market) to a level above 61.5% within any 10-day period. This is a rarely occurring sentiment, which carries tremendous import with market watchers.

    • pugsma said

      We are only 2 days into the 10 trading days:

      ZBT has gone from below 0.40 to 0.52 in just 2 days!

      Needs to exceed 0.615 by the 10th trading day.

  4. Jet Ski said

    Do you have targets for the minor waves of Major 5 down of the alternate blue count?

  5. pugsma said

    If we assume 2501 ended major [1] ended at 2501, then major [2] Fib targets are:

    50% Fib 2347

    62% Fib 2309

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