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March 20th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 20, 2020

5:25 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened gap up from 2408, hit 2453, and faded all day hitting 2296 before closing at 2304.

The VIX closed down -8% to 66 with the SP500 down -4%  This is a positive divergence on the VIX with respect to the SP500 price and is potentially bullish for future SP500 price.  Also the NYMO closed higher at -55 vs -60 yesterday with the SP500 price closing down -4%  and is potentially bullish for future SP500 price.  Maintaining the call that the 2281 low from Wednesday is the bottom for the Primary (green) count for the end of PC-C2 or the alternate (red) count PA-C2.

The  primary (green) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a 3-3-5 running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  The 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave.  The 3-wave move up from 2347 to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave.   The Primary C (PC) 5-wave drop from 3394 to 2281, has been typical of PC wave of a Cycle degree flat in that it’s been very fast.  The major [1] of P1-C3 is underway with a target of 2695.  This primary (green) wave count remains valid above the 2281 low.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [5]-PC-C2 is playing out as an ending diagonal from the major [4] high at 2711.  The 2281 low is minor 3 of major [5].   The 2467 high is minor 4 of major [5].  The final minor 5 of major [5] wave down is underway and must remain above 2195 to keep the ending diagonal valid, where minor 5 < minor 3 < minor 1.  The major [5]=0.88[1] target is 2238 and the PC=2.0PA target at 2206.

The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C1 wave that peaked in February 2020 at 3394 and a large C2 wave 5-3-5 Zig-Zag down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269.   The initial PA-C2 wave down is looking to completed at 2281.  The PB-C2 wave should be bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2838/2971 (basis PA at 2281).   Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347.  The PC=PA target is 1858 (right between the 50%/62% Fib targets of 2031/1703).  The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.

Be safe, healthy and have a great weekend!   

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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