March 20th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 20, 2020
5:25 pm EST: The SP-500 opened gap up from 2408, hit 2453, and faded all day hitting 2296 before closing at 2304.
The VIX closed down -8% to 66 with the SP500 down -4% This is a positive divergence on the VIX with respect to the SP500 price and is potentially bullish for future SP500 price. Also the NYMO closed higher at -55 vs -60 yesterday with the SP500 price closing down -4% and is potentially bullish for future SP500 price. Maintaining the call that the 2281 low from Wednesday is the bottom for the Primary (green) count for the end of PC-C2 or the alternate (red) count PA-C2.
The primary (green) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a 3-3-5 running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave. The 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave. The 3-wave move up from 2347 to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave. The Primary C (PC) 5-wave drop from 3394 to 2281, has been typical of PC wave of a Cycle degree flat in that it’s been very fast. The major [1] of P1-C3 is underway with a target of 2695. This primary (green) wave count remains valid above the 2281 low.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [5]-PC-C2 is playing out as an ending diagonal from the major [4] high at 2711. The 2281 low is minor 3 of major [5]. The 2467 high is minor 4 of major [5]. The final minor 5 of major [5] wave down is underway and must remain above 2195 to keep the ending diagonal valid, where minor 5 < minor 3 < minor 1. The major [5]=0.88[1] target is 2238 and the PC=2.0PA target at 2206.
The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C1 wave that peaked in February 2020 at 3394 and a large C2 wave 5-3-5 Zig-Zag down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269. The initial PA-C2 wave down is looking to completed at 2281. The PB-C2 wave should be bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2838/2971 (basis PA at 2281). Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347. The PC=PA target is 1858 (right between the 50%/62% Fib targets of 2031/1703). The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.
Be safe, healthy and have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
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