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March 18th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update Before the Close

Posted by pugsma on March 18, 2020

3:30 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened gap down from 2554 and hit 2385, bounced to 2454 then dropped to a new low at 2281.

The 2281 low today is a likely near the bottom for the Primary (green) count for the end of PC-C2 or the alternate (red) count PA-C2.

The  primary (green) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a 3-3-5 running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  The 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave.  The 3-wave move up from 2347 to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave.   The Primary C (PC) 5-wave drop from 3394 to 2281 (so far), has been typical of PC wave of a Cycle degree flat in that it’s been very fast.   The final major [5] wave of PC looks to be playing out as an ending diagonal that has completed the minor 1, 2 and 3 waves at 2367, 2554 and 2281.  It’s likely that the bounce from 2281 is a minor 4 wave up to a 23%/38% Fib at 2344/2385 and there will be one more low below 2281 to complete major [5]-PC-C2.   The major [5]=0.88[1] target is 2238 and the major [5]=[1] target is 2173.

The alternate (blue) wave count is major [3]-PC-C2 ended at 2281, just above the typical major [3]=1.62[1] target at 2265.  The move up from 2281 is a major [4] wave that should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib at 2478/2606.  Once major [4] competes, there will be a final major [5] down toward the PC=2.0PA target at 2206 to PC=2.23PA target at 2069.  Note the 50% Fib retrace (of C1) is at 2031.

The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C1 wave that peaked in February 2020 at 3394 and a large C2 wave 5-3-5 Zig-Zag down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269.   The initial PA-C2 wave down is looking to complete between 2281 and 2173.  Once PA ends, the PB-C2 wave should be bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2838/2971 (basis PA at 2281).   Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347.  The PC=PA target is 1858 (right between the 50%/62% Fib targets of 2031/1703).  The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.

SP-500 15-min chart (3:25 pm EST):

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

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