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March 18th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 18, 2020

5:55 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened gap down from 2554, hit 2385, bounced to 2454, then dropped to a new low at 2281 and closed at 2398.

The 2281 low today is a likely near the bottom for the Primary (green) count for the end of PC-C2 or the alternate (red) count PA-C2.

The  primary (green) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a 3-3-5 running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  The 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave.  The 3-wave move up from 2347 to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave.   The Primary C (PC) 5-wave drop from 3394 to 2281 (so far), has been typical of PC wave of a Cycle degree flat in that it’s been very fast.   The final major [5] wave of PC looks to be playing out as an ending diagonal that has completed the minor 1, 2 and 3 waves at 2367, 2554 and 2281.  It’s likely that the bounce from 2281 is a minor 4 wave up to a 38% Fib at 2385 and there will be one more low below 2281 to complete major [5]-PC-C2.  The major [5]=0.88[1] target is 2238 and the major [5]=[1] target is 2173.  Note a break above 2554 would mean that the major [5]-PC-C2 low is in place at 2281.

The alternate (blue) wave count is major [3]-PC-C2 ended at 2281, just above the typical major [3]=1.62[1] target at 2265.  The move up from 2281 is a major [4] wave that should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib at 2478/2606.  The major [4] wave remains valid below the major [1] low of 2856.  Once major [4] competes, there will be a final major [5] down toward the PC=2.0PA target at 2206 to PC=2.23PA target at 2069.  Note the 50% Fib retrace (of C1) is at 2031.

The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C1 wave that peaked in February 2020 at 3394 and a large C2 wave 5-3-5 Zig-Zag down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269.   The initial PA-C2 wave down is looking to complete between 2281 and 2173.  Once PA ends, the PB-C2 wave should be bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2838/2971 (basis PA at 2281).   Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347.  The PC=PA target is 1858 (right between the 50%/62% Fib targets of 2031/1703).  The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


20 Responses to “March 18th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. rat8nine said

    spx daily as of the close. I am seeing many charts that are either complete in median line terms and at key fib areas, or are close. It is so interesting that these areas are getting hit coming into oe, and Denali’s comments from earlier are on my mind.

  2. petemerch said

    So a break above 2554 means it’s the primary and major [5]-PC-C2 low is in place at 2281.
    Does this then mean the alt(blue) count is gone?

    • pugsma said

      For the primary (green) count at the minor wave degree level with major [5], it must first break above the minor 2 high at 2554 to begin to confirm the major [5]-PC low is in place at 2281. Then in must break above the major [4] high of 2711.

      For the alternate(blue) count where major [3] just ended at 2281 the major [4] wave is free to roam higher as long as it stays below the major [1] low of 2856.

  3. Fun with numbers – the tech sector has been lagging this downturn. The nasdaq 100 is still 16-17% shy of its dec 2018 low. Spx is already there. If one thinks the nasdaq needs to catch up before a market bounce, a 16-17% draw down on spx gets you right around that PUG 2031 target.

    • rat8nine said

      I frequently notice that the indexes don’t all do the same thing, and it is interesting how they take turns either leading higher or lower. Often, when one is making a marginal higher high or lower low, there is another making a retest, with an inverse fib to the one making the lower low.

  4. It will take me till later today to put out my next historical research post – but I wanted to note something about POWERFUL Opex bottoms.

    There is DEFINITELY one coming! The challenge will continue to be the levels and the timing, one thing that is clear is that in many of these powerful opex bottoms, it takes 3 to 5 days for the bottom to form once a perceived support level is broken. This is what occurred in Dec 2018, August 2015 and quite a few more examples of EXTREME bottoms.

    Yesterday, when approximately 2400 gave way, the selling really hit…. This could be the bottom as liquidity has vanished, BUT a lot of these bottoms have taken 3 to 5 days after the break lower… so it is something to be aware of…. Just check the Dec 2018 charts (break of 2580?) or August 2015 (2043), the selling was relentless – even if it was irrational….

    Lastly, at this point in the week, this will be the WORST opex week ever – Most super bad opex weeks tend to bottom in the week post opex. Of the top 10 worst opex weeks since 2007, 7 have bottomed post opex, 2 have bottomed on opex day and 1 was the beginning of a forever slide back in June 2018.

    I will be back with more later today,


  5. Denali, thanks for coming back! Apparent that we really have not had a throw in the bath towel moment (huge volume/s spike, e.g). Was that capitulation criteria in both of your examples or no?

  6. kazoom1618 said

    WMT at ATH – up 10% this week – tp sales that good?

    Also AAPL, AMZN at ATH relative to $spx

  7. Which count is it, if we go higher from here?

  8. nashvagus said

    McOsc appears to be turning – current (9:32am CST) shows 111.12 and rising .

  9. pugsma said

    Key Update (11:40 am EST. 3-19-20): I’m making the call that for the primary (green) wave count the PC-C2 low is in place at 2281.

    For the alternate (blue) count, this move up to 2457 (thus far) is a major [4]-PC-C2 wave. There will still be a major [5]-PC-C2 wave lower that 2281.

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