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March 17th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 17, 2020

5:40 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened gap up from 2386 and hit 2461, then dropped to a new low at 2367 and rallied to close at 2529.

The 2367 low today is a likely potential bottom for the Primary (green) count for the end of PC-C2 or the alternate (red) count PA-C2.

The  primary (green) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a 3-3-5 running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  The 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave.  The 3-wave move up from 2347 to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave.   The 2367 level, right at the 38% Fib (C1 retrace) completed the Primary C (PC) wave and completed the C2 wave flat.  The major [1] of P1-C3 wave is just getting underway.  The initial P1-C2 target is the 3154 pivot area.

The alternate (blue) wave count is major [5]-PC-C2 is still on going from the major [4] wave high at 2711.  The minor 1 wave of major [5] completed at 2367.  The minor 2 wave up is underway to a target area at the 62%/78% Fibs of 2580/2635.  There should still be minor 3, 4 and 5 waves down to complete major [5]-PC1.   The major [5] wave targets are at [5]=0.78[1] = 2291 and [5]=[1]=2173.   The PC=2.0PA target is at 2206.  The C2 wave 50% Fib (C1 retrace) target at 2031 (blue labels)  .  Note that this alternate (blue) count does NOT go invalid below the December 2347 low.

The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C1 wave that peaked in February 2020 at 3394 and a large C2 wave 5-3-5 Zig-Zag down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269.   The initial PA-C2 wave down is looking to test the December 2018 low at 2347.  Once PA ends, the PB-C2 wave should be bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2876/3000 (basis PA at 2357).   Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347.  The PC=PA target is 1839 (right between the 50%/62% Fib targets of 2031/1703).  The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


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