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March 16th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update (at the open)

Posted by pugsma on March 16, 2020

9:45 am EST (updated 11:10am):   The SP-500 opened gap down from 2711 and hit 2490 tripping the -7% circuit breaker, 15 minute trading halt.

With the highly like break below the 2479 Thursday low, the primary (green) count will become the Cycle 2 (C2) wave running flat from September 2018 to now.

The  primary (green) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a 3-3-5 running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  The 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave.  The 3-wave move up from 2347 to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave.   And now the 5-wave drop from 3394 to ??? for the Primary C (PC) wave to complete C2.  Major [3]-PC ended at 2479.  Major [4]-PC ended at 2711 and retraced almost to the 38% Fib at 2729.  The major [5] wave down is underway with targets at [5]=0.5[1] = 2442, [5]=0.62[1] = 2377, [5]=0.78[1] = 2291, and [5]=[1]2173.   The PC=1.62PA target is at 2432 and the PC=2.0PA target is at 2206.   The 38% Fib (C1 retrace) is at 2357.  However, the C2 wave could drop as low as the 50% Fib (C1 retrace) at 2031.  Note that this primary (green) count does NOT go invalid below the December 2347 low.

The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C2 wave down to the 50%/62% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703.   The PA-C2 wave is headed toward the December 2018 low at 2347.  Once PA ends, the PB-C2 wave should bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2898/3017 (basis PA at 2402).   Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347.  The PC=PA target is 1906 (right below the 50% Fib target of 2031).   The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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