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March 16th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 16, 2020

8:20 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened gap down from 2711 and hit 2402 (after tripping the -7% circuit breaker), then bounced to 2563 and finally dropped to 2381 closing at 2386.

The  primary (green) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a 3-3-5 running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  The 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave.  The 3-wave move up from 2347 to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave.   And now the 5-wave drop from 3394 to ??? for the Primary C (PC) wave to complete C2.  Major [3]-PC ended at 2479.  Major [4]-PC ended at 2711 and retraced almost to the 38% Fib at 2729.  The major [5] wave down is underway with targets at [5]=0.62[1] = 2377, [5]=0.78[1] = 2291, and [5]=[1]=2173.   The PC=1.62PA target is at 2432 and the PC=2.0PA target is at 2206.  The C2 wave 38% Fib (C1 retrace) target is at 2357 (green labels) or C2 could target the 50% Fib (C1 retrace) target at 2031 (blue labels)  .  Note that this primary (green) count does NOT go invalid below the December 2347 low.

The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C1 wave that peaked in February 2020 at 3394 and a large C2 wave 5-3-5 Zig-Zag down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269.   The initial PA-C2 wave down is looking to test the December 2018 low at 2347.  Once PA ends, the PB-C2 wave should be bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2876/3000 (basis PA at 2357).   Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347.  The PC=PA target is 1839 (right between the 50%/62% Fib targets of 2031/1703).  The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Techical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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