March 13th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 13, 2020
2:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 2780 to hit 2632, dropped to 2492 and then bounced to 2589.
The bullish primary (green) wave count is that major P2-C3 that may have bottomed at 2479, near the 88% Fibonacci retracement of 2473. There is a little more room P2 to drop lower towards the December 2018 low at 2347, however for the primary (green) wave count to remain valid the P2 wave must hold above the 2347 C2 low from December 2018. Once this P2 wave ends, a massive wave higher in P3-C3 should get underway and headed well have the 3394 all-time high, reaching the 4222 area within 2 years.
The optional bullish alternate (blue) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave. The drop to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave. The move up to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave. And now the 5-wave drop from 3394 to 2479 thus far is the Primary C (PC) wave to complete C2. It’s possible to count 5-waves down from 3394 to 2479, as seen in the red labels. However, it would have a better look if this move off the 2479 low was a major [4] wave up to a 23%/38% Fib at 2630/2729. Then one more major [5] drop to the PC=1.62PA target at 2432. Note that this alternate (blue) count does NOT go invalid below the December 2347 low. The P2-C2 wave could drop as low as the 50% Fib (C1 retrace) at 2031.
Note: Both the Primary (green) and Alternate (blue) counts are essentially the same in terms of there intermediate to long-term move to new all-time highs. The only real difference is looking in the rear view mirror of the past two years of price action, the alternate (blue) count is a lot more elegant in order explain a 1 year and 7 month bear market since the September 2018 peak at 2914.
The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C2 wave down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269. The PA-C2 wave may have completed today a 2479 for could test a little lower toward the December 2018 low at 2347. Once PA ends, the PB-C2 wave should bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2937/3046 (basis PA at 2479). Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347. The PC=PA target is 2022 (right below the 50% Fib target of 2031), the PC=1.38*PA target 1674 (right below the 62% Fib target of 1703) and the PC=1.62PA target is 1455 (right above the 78% Fib target of 1269). The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.
Have a great weekend !
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly:
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