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March 13th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 13, 2020

2:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 gapped up from 2780 to hit 2632, dropped to 2492 and then bounced to 2589.

The bullish primary (green) wave count is that major P2-C3 that may have bottomed at 2479, near the 88% Fibonacci retracement of 2473.  There is a little more room P2 to drop lower towards the December 2018 low at 2347, however for the primary (green) wave count to remain valid the P2 wave must hold above the 2347 C2 low from December 2018.  Once this P2 wave ends, a massive wave higher in P3-C3 should get underway and headed well have the 3394 all-time high, reaching the 4222 area within 2 years.

The optional bullish alternate (blue) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  The drop to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave.  The move up to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave.   And now the 5-wave drop from 3394 to 2479 thus far is the Primary C (PC) wave to complete C2.   It’s possible to count 5-waves down from 3394 to 2479, as seen in the red labels.  However, it would have a better look if this move off the 2479 low was a major [4] wave up to a 23%/38% Fib at 2630/2729.  Then one more major [5] drop to the PC=1.62PA target at 2432.  Note that this alternate (blue) count does NOT go invalid below the December 2347 low.  The P2-C2 wave could drop as low as the 50% Fib (C1 retrace) at 2031.

Note: Both the Primary (green) and Alternate (blue) counts are essentially the same in terms of there intermediate to long-term move to new all-time highs.   The only real difference is looking in the rear view mirror of the past two years of price action, the alternate (blue) count is a lot more elegant in order explain a 1 year and 7 month bear market since the September 2018 peak at 2914.

The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C2 wave down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269.   The PA-C2 wave may have completed today a 2479 for could test a little lower toward the December 2018 low at 2347.  Once PA ends, the PB-C2 wave should bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2937/3046 (basis PA at 2479).   Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347.  The PC=PA target is 2022 (right below the 50% Fib target of 2031), the PC=1.38*PA target 1674 (right below the 62% Fib target of 1703) and the PC=1.62PA target is 1455 (right above the 78% Fib target of 1269).   The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly:

SP500 Technical Analysis

15 Responses to “March 13th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. kazoom1618 said

    Want to wish everyone an early ‘Happy Pi Day’! 3/14

    Although its traditional to have a slice of pie on this date, I for one, plan on getting ‘pie-eyed’ this year – after reading this very well -researched paper on COVID-19:

    View at Medium.com

  2. pugsma said

    That’s a decent week close at 2711, which is above the 200-week SMA of 2640.

    Also a weekly bullish hammer candle.

    • pugsma said

      Also interestingly the 2711 weekly close is -20.1% down from 3394, just barely meeting the -20% bear market level on a the weekly chart. Hmmm…

      • wac308 said

        Sorry Steve, very tired from the wild week, not understanding what’s your thoughts on that?

      • wac308 said

        Thinking you mean …not really bear market…. please delete these comments if not making sense.
        Cheers and well done on the fantastic commentary.
        Brilliant

  3. petemerch said

    In summary am I reading this correctly as saying, the primary count can still go lower to 2347, the alt blue can go lower to 2031, so 2347 separates these counts and if around 2915 is exceeded before going to new lows then essentially its the primary?

    • pugsma said

      2856 is the key level now to exceed to decide is the 2479 low is the final bottom for primary (green) vs alternate (blue).

      • For all intents and purposes. the alt blue which has been my preferred count, flirts too much with that red. Volatility levels are concerning here. Never have I been cheering for that primary so hard in my life, as those red targets are gut wrenchers. Want to get past that Red 62% retrace to feel more comfortable! Best of luck trading.

  4. dgsanom said

    Steve, how can I get invited to be able to login and leave comments? Daniel

  5. pugsma said

    This seems like interesting …

  6. pugsma said

    So assuming the SP500 opens up below the 2479 low from last Thursday, it will point towards the Alternate (blue) count 3-3-5 wave running flat Cycle 2 (C2) that began in the fall of 2018 with the PA 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347. Then there was a PB 3-wave up from 2347 to 3394 in February 2020. Now there the is 5-Wave PC wave drop from 3394 to ???

    Possible PC Targets:

    PC = 1.62PA = 2432 (38% FIb of C1 = 2358)
    PC = 2.00*PA = 2206 (50% Fib of C1 = 2030)
    PC = 2.62*PA = 1838 (62% Fib of C1 = 1703)

    Within the PC wave the major [1] wave dropped from 3394 to 2856, which is a drop of 538.
    Major [4] looks to ended at 2711 on Friday.

    The major [5] targets are:

    [5] = 0.50[1] = 2442
    [5] = 0.62[1] = 2377
    [5] = 0.78[1] = 2291
    [5] = 1.00[1] = 2173

  7. R Swaim said

    Print any charts before the open. Last time it was a delayed open, Stockcharts stopped working.

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