March 10th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 10, 2020
6:25 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 2745 at the open and hit 2848, dropped to re-test the 2734 low and closed up at 2882.
As I mentioned last night after the close, the NYMO closed with a “potential” positive divergence at -126 with the SP500 at 2745 versus the Feb 28th NYMO close at -136 with the SP500 at 2954. This type of “potential” positive divergence needed confirmation at today’s close with the NYMO closing above -126. The NYMO closed today at -76. When we see the NYMO this extremely oversold (below -120) and a confirmed positive divergence with the SP500 price, it typical leads to multi-day rally that retraces at least 50% of the SP500 drop (i.e. the 50% Fib at 3064). This fits with both wave counts listed below.
The bullish primary (green) wave count is that major P2-C3 bottomed at 2734. The typical 62% Fib for a wave 2 is at 2745 and the SP500 price hit 2734 yesterday and again today. Assuming today’s 2734 low was the P2 low, then today’s move up to 2800 was minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3. The drop to 2760 was minute (2). Minute (3) began late today to reach 2882 thus far. The minute (3)=1.62*(1) = 2966. The minor 1 target is near 3000. Minor 2 should pull-back to a 50% Fib at 2867. Then minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 = 3298. Ultimately major [1] should reach the all-time high near 3394. The primary (green) wave count remains valid for the P2 wave above the 2347 C2 low from December 2018.
The bearish alternate (red) wave count is the C2 wave down to the 50%/62% Fib (of C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703. The PA-C2 wave completed today a 2734. The PB-C2 wave bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 3064/3143 is underway. Following PB bounce, there will be a massive PC-C2 wave that will break below 2347. The PC=1.62PA target is 2033 (right at the 50% Fib target of 2031). The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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