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March 2nd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 2, 2020

12:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped update to 2990, hit 2945 and rallied to 3040.

The bullish primary (green) wave count is that the SP-500 Cycle 2 (C2) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) wave ended in December 2018 at 2347.  The move up from 2347 to 3394 was Primary 1 (P1) of Cycle 3 (C3) of Super Cycle V (SC-V).   This drop from 3394 to 2856 is the Primary 2 (P2) wave of C3.   The drop to 2856 is right below a typical 50% Fibonacci retracement at 2871.   Within the P2 wave I see major [A] ending at 3007 and major [B] at 3097.  The major [C]=0.62[A] target is 2857, which is also agrees with the 2856 low.  Once the P2-C3 wave ends, the next move up will be a massive P3-C3 impulse wave that will move far beyond the 3394 high to a target area near 4552, where P3=1.62P1.   So far off the P2 low at 2856, we have minute (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 at 2960, minute (2) at 2881 and now a minute (3) wave up with a target at 1.62*(1) = 3049.   There are still the wave minute (4) pull-back and wave minute (5) up.   Minor 1 should reach 3049/3097 before a minor 2 wave pull-back to a 50% Fib near 2977.  I have the initial target for the major [1]-P3-C3 wave at the old 3394 high area.   This primary (green) wave count remains valid above the 2856 low.

A variant to the bullish primary (green) count is the new alternate (blue) wave count that has the drop from 3994 to 2856 has only major [A]-P2-C3.   Thus, the current move up is a major [B]-P2-C1 wave that should target the 50%/62% Fib area at 3125/3190.   Minor A of major [B] should reach 3049/3097, before a minor B wave pull-back to a 50% Fib near 2977 and final minor C push up to 3125/3190 to complete major [B].   Once major [B] completes, there should be a major [C] drop to new lows below 2856.  The 62%/78% Fib target for the completion of major [C]-P2 is at the 2745/2577 area (50-month SMA support at 2605).   This alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the 2347 Cycle 2 low.

The very bearish alternate (red) wave count is that the Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) topped at 3394 and this move down to 2856 (thus far) is the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2).   Once the PA wave ends, there should be a PB wave bounce higher to a 50%/62% Fib near 3125/3190 area (basis a PA low at 2856).  Then there will be a massive PC wave lower that breaks below 2347 and reaches a 50%/62% Fib target area of 2031/1703 to complete the C2 wave.  This alternate (red) count would become invalid on a break above 3394.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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