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February 27th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 27, 2020

5:00 pm EST:   Only one chart (daily) required tonight and one level (2954) to watch going into tomorrow.    A break below 2954 signals the Cycle 1 (C1) top at 3394.

The primary (green) count major [4]-P5-C1 must stop now at the 2977 low and hold the major [1] high of 2954 to remain valid.    This would then allow the potential for a new all-high above 3394 for major [5]-P5-C1 later in the year.  The major [5]=[1] target is 3584.

For the new alternate (red) count, the Cycle 1 (C1) top occurred at 3394 after a large major [4]-P5-C1 triangle consolidation during the summer of 2019 and a relentless major [5] wave up to just above triangle target of 3327.   (Although it’s not really a new wave count, as I was showing this C1 count as the primary for most of Q4-2019, see the Dec 31st, 2019 SP-500 Daily Chart at the bottom.)  Thus, the Cycle 2 (C2) wave to new lows below 2347 is underway, since the 3394 high.  The 50%/62% Fibonacci target for C2 is at 2031/1703 (i.e retracing 50%/62% of the 10+ year C1 wave up form March of 2009).   This rapid move down from 3394 to 2977 thus far is major [1] of PA-C2.  Assuming major [1] ends here near the 2941 pivot area, that major [2] wave 50%/62% Fib targets are 3186/3236.  Once major [2] completes, major waves [3],[4], and [5] with take the Primary A (PA) wave down to the 2347 low..

SP-500 Daily Chart (2-27-20):

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 Daily Chart (12-31-19):

SP500 Technical Analysis

22 Responses to “February 27th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Thank you. Weekly lower BB at 2950. Closes over the last several years below it and then closes back above it, supported by other technicals, have produced some large rallies up.

  2. Jet Ski said

    What happens if 2941 doesn’t hold? Do we just look at the next lower pivot?

    • pugsma said

      Yes, if 2954 falls and we are then in the red wave count major [1] wave, you can only look to previous areas of pivot support and recent lows (ie 2941 pivot, 2872 pivot, 2856 low, 2822 low, etc).

      Once we find the end of major [1], we can make typical wave projections for major [2], [3], [4] and [5]

  3. pugsma said

    McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) closed at -127 today with the SP500 down -12% in 6 days.

    The lowest NYMO reading I can find is -140 in August 2018 with the SP500 down -16% in 8 days.

  4. kaneoahu said

    I guess this isn’t exactly a technical question Steve, but it has been bothering me so I’ll ask it. Does the proposed primary count wave [4] pass the “right look” test?

  5. Steve, from these oversold areas on the NYMO, etc., could we go into an 87 type crash? Or are we too oversold? Do you have any records of the NYMO back in 1987?

    • pugsma said

      I do not have NYMO data from 1987 nor do I know if it even exists.

      The 1987 crash saw a -22% drop in one day.

      The are now circuit breakers at 7%, 13% and 20% on the SP500. A stop trading circuit breaker would trigger on a 7% intra-day drop.

  6. Cabell Maddux III said

    Are we in red count now since we broke 2954 after hours? Or does it only matter in an open trading day?

  7. pugsma said

    Note that 2870 is a 50% Fibonacci correction of the wave up from 2347 to 3394.

    What if the 2347 low was actually the end of Cycle 2 (something I’ve considered) and the move up to 3394 was Primary 1 of Cycle 3. That would mean that this big scary drop is a Primary 2 wave to a 50% Fib.

    Next up is Primary 3 of Cycle 3 wave higher that would last years if not a decade…

    Food for thought on a Friday morning.

    • pugsma said

      Or what is the move up from 2347 to 3394 was only major [1]-P5-C1?

      This 50% Fib retrace to 2870 would be a major [2] wave.

      We then still have major [3], [4], and [5] up the the Cycle 1 top near 4000 going into years 2021-2022.

      Point being is that there are bullish outcomes, unless the 2347 low is broken.

  8. pugsma said

    Overnight ES Future are showing a bullish IHS pattern with a head at 2880, neckline at 2950 and a target at 3020.

  9. pugsma said

  10. pugsma said

  11. lauter1 said

    Pug, have you ever seen a major top form like this falling straight off a cliff? Tops are almost always long processes, with clear retraces. This weekly wave sure looks and feels corrective.

    Weekly IWM chart looks like the c wave of a big triangle, fwiw.

  12. JW said

    Steve, if the double bottom at 2855 ends up holding, will that be a positive from a technical standpoint and impact your alternative bullish scenarios that you are considering, or should it be disregarded?

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