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August 22nd 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 22, 2019

4:00 pm EST:   The SP-500 price has been trapped between the 2807 and 2941 pivots for the past 2 weeks.  A break of that range will determine the wave count outcome and whether or not the SP500 will make a marginally new high above 3028 (primary green) or not (alternate blue)

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P5-C1 is underway with a target at 3015, where minor 3 =1.62*minor1.   Waves minor 3, 4 and 5 of major [5] should make a marginal new high above 3028 over the next month at the long standing P5=P1 target of 3051.   Note that primary count has wave P5 as in the final wave, major [5], of an ending diagonal with maximum of 3121.

The alternate (blue) count is that P5-C1 topped at 3028 and since then the C2 wave towards new lows below 2347 is underway, in its early stages.   The major [1]-PA-C2 wave ended at 2822.  The major [2] wave has either complete at 2943 near the 62% Fib or will move to the 78%/88% Fib at 2983/3003.   Once major [2] completes a break below 2822 will signal that the major [3]-PA-C2 wave underway toward the 2531 level, where [3]=1.62[1].   The alternate (blue) count remains valid below 3028.

Have a Great Weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

23 Responses to “August 22nd 2018: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. JW said

    JNK hitting all time highs:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09834707270

  2. pugsma said

    So clearly for the Primary (green) wave count, minute (2) of minor 3 of major [5] is headed lower to the 62%/78%/88% Fib at 2869/2851/2840.

  3. pugsma said

    Interestingly Cobra’s SPY stats (10 years + worth of historical data) after the initial drop from 3028 to 2822 have argued the SP500 “owes” us a lower low than 2822. Even he did not believe it after the rally to 2940 this week.

  4. rat8nine said

    spx and qqq 60

  5. rat8nine said

    soxl as a proxy for the semis:

  6. pugsma said

    Bad close for the bulls at 2847, as it’s not a new closing low with a higher NYMO.

    Likely means more selling ahead…

    • wac308 said

      Hi Steve, just wanted to understand the comments regarding NYMO.
      Yesterday your comment was that it was Bullish and now today it’s Bearish?

      • wac308 said

        The NYMO closes above +20, showing bullish impulse potential.

        No need to update the charts tonight.

        Reply

      • pugsma said

        Closing prices on the NYMO vs SP500 matter.

        Wednesday saw the NYMO close slightly above +20 at +20.51, which is typical of the “potential” bull impulse wave beginning (i.e. (3) of minor 3 per the primary). Also the NYSE A-D line made a new high (above where the SP500 hit 2943) the past two days, which is typical of a new bullish wave up.

        Those where two potentially positive signs for further SP500 price advancement. Obviously today that failed with price dropping to 2835. There are no 100% probability wave action indicators, and today saw a failure on two typically reliable indicators.

        The fact the SP500 reached the long standing P5-C1 top target near P5=P1 = 3051 is certainly at play here. There really isn’t much reward on the upside even if major [5] reaches 3051 vs 3028.

      • pugsma said

        Now what about the downside SP500 vs NYMO price closes recently?

        We have:

        Near 2822 Low: 2848 vs -79

        Near 2826 Low: 2845 vs -53 (that set a bullish positive divergence that produced at rally to 2943.)

        Today at 2835 low: 2847 vs -26

        Had the SP500 closed below 2845 with NYMO above -53, we’d have had a double positive divergence on NYMO vs SP500 (ie. bullish).

        Since we missed that, I suspect more SP500 price drop next week likely below 2822 at least intra-day and a close below 2845 with hopefully (for the bullish primary) a NYMO close above -53.

      • Rodney Mruk said

        Thanks for that explanation and analysis, Steve. It is much appreciated.

      • Does the fact that the nymo exceeded 20 (barely) a hard stop/ exclusion for the “crash” zone irsk that you often refer to, or are we technically still in that at risk zone? thanks!

  7. wac308 said

    Thanks Steve, your response and explanation is very much appreciated 👍

  8. pugsma said

    Bulls (Primary) are looking for closes below 2845 with NYMO above -52 to set a potential double positive divergence.

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