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August 15th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 15, 2019

4:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened flat, dropped to 2826 mid-day and closed at 2847.  On the upside the 2941 pivot is a key resistance area where the 13-day EMA (2907), 34-day EMA (2932), and 50-day SMA (2943) cluster resides.  On the downside the 2807 and 2759 pivots and 200-day SMA at 2797 are key support.

The primary (white/green) wave count is off to a minute (1)-(2) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1.  The drop to 2826 today for minute (2) of minor 3 is just above the 2822 limit for this wave count.  However, if the minor 2 low of 2822 breaks, then minor 2 is still on going and the next target for minor is the 78%/88% Fib at 2795/2765, which is in the area of the 200-day SMA (2797) support.  Note that for the primary count to remain valid, minor 2 must hold above the major [2] low at 2729.  Finally, it should be noted that the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) put in a “potential” positive divergence wrt to new closing SP-500 price low (i.e. last Monday 2845/-78 versus yesterday 2840/-58).  This NYMO positive divergence with respect to SP500 price is often a key indicator at an important SP500 price bottom formation.

The alternate (blue) wave count that major [2] of PA-C2 ended at 2943, which is a typical 62% (2950) Fibonacci retracement for a wave [2].   The SP-500 price is now in a large major [3] wave lower that will target the 2491 pivot, where [3]=2.0[1].   A break below 2729 would confirm the alternate (blue) is underway.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-600 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

3 Responses to “August 15th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Hi Steve, I hope your are enjoying the end of summer days. Question …. Could we still be in a wave 4 of minute ii, with another large drop below 2800? Or have we rallied too much especially with the NYMO getting that + divergence this week. Thanks and have a good weekend.

    • pugsma said

      Rally from 2826 to 2891 thus far is more than 50% of the 2943 to 2826 drop. So not a wave iv of minute (2) of minor 3. The minute (2) of minor 3 must be in place at 2826. Remember that version of the primary count could not break 2822, so it’s minute (2) low is in at 2825.

      However this could still be a version of the primary count where minor 2 wave is still on going and will break below 2822 into the 2795/2765 area next week. This 50%/62% Fib rally would be wave ii-(c) of minor 2. Next week would see waves iii-iv-v of minor 2 makes new lows below 2822.

      Must break above 2947 before below 2822 to confirm the 2826 low version of the primary.

  2. pugsma said

    The SP-500 price in this year 2019 is following the pre-election year pattern of the 4-year US Presidential Cycle that goes back on 116 years worth of historical data from the DJIA.

    This pre-election year had a great run into a peak in late July (3028) and looks like it couple fall below 2723 by mid-October is the pattern continues…

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