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August 14th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 14, 2019

4:20 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down at the open to 2895, fell all day and closed at the low of 2840 (a new close low for this move down from 3028)..

The 2941 pivot is a key resistance area were the 13-day EMA, 34-day EMA, and 50-day SMA cluster resides.

The primary (white/green) wave count is off to a minute (1)-(2) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1.  The drop to 2840 today for minute (2) of minor 3 is just above the 88% Fib retracement at 2836.  However, if the minor 2 low of 2822 breaks, then minor 2 is still on going and the next target for minor is the 78% Fib at 2795, which is the 200-day SMA (2796) support.  Note that for the primary count to remain valid, minor 2 must hold above the major [2] low at 2729.  Finally, it should be noted that the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) put in a “potential” positive divergence wrt to new closing SP-500 price low today (i.e. last Monday 2845 vs -78 and today 2840 vs -58).  This NYMO positive divergence wrt SP500 price is often a key indicator at an important SP500 price bottom.

The alternate (blue) wave count that major [2] of PA-C2 ended at 2943, which is a typical 62% (2950) Fibonacci retracement for a wave [2].   The SP-500 price is now in a large major [3] wave lower that will target the 2491 pivot, where [3]=2.0[1].   A break below 2729 would confirm the alternate (blue) is underway.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

27 Responses to “August 14th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Great analysis of late. Reviewing, can you elaborate or explain your “bulls need close on 2839 or lower” comment at the end of day?

  2. pugsma said

    If minor 2 continues lower than 2822, then some targets:

    Waves that happened:
    Wave (a): 3028 to 2822 = 206 points
    Wave (b): 2822 to 2943 = 121 points

    Possible target:
    Wave (c) = 0.62(a) = 2815
    Wave (c) = 0.78(a) = 2782
    Wave (c) = 1.00(a) = 2737

  3. kazoom1618 said

    SPX 10min – wave (2) as an expanded flat c=1.62 x a at 2838:

    https://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p90787227686&a=670251131&r=1565877549140&cmd=print

  4. pugsma said

    OT: Next weeks Jackson Hole WY worldwide central bank meeting will be interesting. Will the US central bank signal a willingness to sell long (30 year) bonds in an attempt to steepen the yield curve and prevent the 10-year vs 2-year inversion?

    This could collapse the long bond bubble and cause a big stock market rally.

  5. pugsma said

    Ouch look at this -22% drop SP500 1 year Performance after a day like yesterday …

  6. pugsma said

    Check out this historical chart of the DJIA in pre-election years (like 2019).

    Peaks in late July (just did this) and falls all way into late October…

  7. pugsma said

    New low at 2835 today (Thursday).

    Important low are almost never on a Thursday or Friday.

    More typically Monday or Tuesday.

    • rat8nine said

      We have to also be aware that this is opex week, and that price usually drives I to an extreme into the close Thursday or Friday. Thursday turns seem rare, and are almost always in the first hour. Friday turns can be very early, within the first half hour, or around noon, but that seems to be more common in a trending market where price pulled back into oe. We don’t know which count is in play yet.

      Steve’s comment above about Jackson Hole next week is interesting in terms of it coming after opex, and with gld where it is as well.

    • pugsma said

      Also NYSE A-D line made a new lower low yesterday, indicating that the SP500 should drop below 2822. NYSE A-D typically leads price at lows and highs…

  8. Stallion said

    There is a story in WSJ that European central bank will start its big bazooka in September meeting.

  9. rat8nine said

    spx 60 – magenta lines are the .786 and .886 rt for potential lower low for the green count, blue count also marked. I would think that within blue [3], minor 1 would end somewhere where it’s hard not to think it’s the green count 2 low….

  10. pugsma said

    All this small wave action late yesterday and today like a small 4th wave with one more good drop for wave 5 coming…

  11. rat8nine said

    adding qqq 60 to the mix:

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