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August 5th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 5, 2019

1:50 pm EST:   As always during times of high volatility and large price moves, I will stick with the larger time frame charts of the 4-hr and daily charts.

The primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) counts are separated by the 2729 level.   Above 2729 the primary wave count remains likely and below 2729 the alternate count takes over.  In either case, I’m looking for a large rally from low to form at a level around the 2807 pivot.

The primary (white/green) count is looking for a minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 low at the 62%/78% Fib retrace of at 2843/2795.   Once minor 2 completes, minor 3 of major [3] should take the SP-500 to new all-time highs above 3028.

The alternate (blue) count is lookin for a major [1]-PA-C2 low at the 2807 pivot area.   From there, the major [2]-PA wave should rally to at least a 50% Fib retrace at the 2941 pivot area, before major [3] drops to new lows below 2729.

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


15 Responses to “August 5th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Great stuff, Steve. Does the previous subscriber suggested count of this drop being major 4 of P5 bear watching ?

    • pugsma said

      This fast drop from 3028 to 2834 (so far) has none of the characteristics of a 4th wave.

      Looks like either a scary 2nd wave (Primary) or 1st wave (Alternate).

  2. pugsma said

    Very interesting Cobra stat on SPY down 6 days in a row (like today). It’s only happened 10 times since 2008.

    Only 1 of 10 (10%) did it keep going significantly lower (August 2011).

    5 of 10 (50%) a significant low was set and rally to new highs.

    4 of 10 (40%) a short-term low was set a several day rally occurred before new lower lows.

  3. rat8nine said

    spx and iwm 60 as of now:

  4. pugsma said

    Typically if this is the 9 of 10 (90%) Cobra cases of SPY down 6 days in a row, then tomorrow will see the panic low early and then a close green.

  5. rox007 said

    Thanks for the timely update PUG. Your added commentary has been invaluable over the last few months, as well.

  6. pugsma said

    ES Futures just sold off 55 points to hit the equivalent of the SP-500 200-DAY SMA at 2792.

    • LightBearer86 said

      Just to add, the DOW has touched the 200-DAY SMA @ 25556 on Monday during trading hours and held.

    • pugsma said

      There was one other time that I recall in the past 10 years, where the ES Futures were down big after hours only to wake up the next day up. That was in year 2011 at the P2-C1 bottom.

      • Rodney Mruk said

        How about Nov 2016 the night Donald Trump was elected president? I recall SPX was down over 100 in ES futures. I am not sure if it opened in the green. But it was up big the next day and the start of a long sustainable rally.

        BTW, we are looking at the possibility of a Trifecta Buy Signal/ Depending on the close today, we could have step two.

        Thanks for your great analysis and commentary. Greatly appreciated.

      • shf said

        +1. Agreed, observed as one of the ways to set an intermediate bottom. Other you had mentioned, panic selling followed by a daily hammer. Also saw the reverse, an oversized futures move to upside that is not matched during RT as an intermediate top. Hopefully close today would tell if this is another case of bottom.

        Thanks again for all the market guidance.

  7. Houston Huang said

    Pug could we be in an expanded flat correcting the move up from 2347 to 2954? And now in impulsive wave C down?

  8. chrys50 said

    The Zweig Breadth Thrust Signal triggered yesterday.

    ….now need to move to .615 within 10 market days.

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