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July 11th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 11, 2019

1:55 pm EST:  The primary (white/green) count is that wave minute (3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 is underway of the 2963 wave minute (2) low.  However, so far this does not look and feel like a typical wave (3) or minor 3 of major [3] impulsive bull wave.   There has been very little conviction and momentum on this move higher.   This makes the alternate (blue) wave count nearly equally probable.   However, a decisive break above 3046 would confirm the primary (white/green) wave count.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [5]-P5-C1 is just about to complete a bearish ending diagonal that began in early June from the 2729 major [4] low.  Minor 4 of major [5] overlapped minor 1 at 2963 vs 2964 and now the minor 5 wave must terminate below 3046, so that the minor 5 wave is shorter that minor 3 (an E-wave and Ending Diagonal requirement).   Note also the P5=P1 target is 3051, so that fits all very well here into a neat little E-wave package for the alternate (blue) waved count.  Also, often a long bullish cycle is completed with a bearish ending diagonal that leads to a violent drop to kick-off a bearish new cycle.  Finally the 3046 maximum for major [5]-P5-C1 also fits within the nearly 2-year long broadening top formation shown on the SP-500 daily chart.

Have a great weekend!!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

21 Responses to “July 11th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. JW said

    Does the most recent very strong leadership to new highs by INDU (yesterday and current) have any bearing on the probabilities for the SPX counts?

  2. rat8nine said

    dia 60 – dia has been the strongest index yesterday and this morning:

  3. pugsma said

    The Russell-2000 (IWM) is still 10% below its October 2018 peak.

    Looking back at the year 2007 SP-500 top, the Russell-2000 also failed to make a new high with the SP-500 top.

  4. rat8nine said

    spx 15 – the lack of impulsiveness is almost weird…for an index making a new all time high, this is a pretty lazy looking move:

  5. pugsma said

    SP500 continues to very slowly wedge higher. Nothing new worthy of an update. Enjoy your weekend.

  6. pugsma said

    Very interesting that tonight Cobra mentioned same Russel-2000 (IWM) small cap major negative divergence wrt to the SP-500 making a new highs. He also shared what I did about seeing this same phenomenon at the year 2007 top.

    • pugsma said

      Cobra said “he’s confused as to why the NYSE A-D line continues to make a new high along with the SP500 and not negatively diverge as well as it did in year 2007”, especially with the small Caps being -10% below their October 2018 high.

      • pugsma said

        I believe that I know answer to the NYSE A-D line strength in the face of really bad market breadth as indicated by the weak Russell-2000 small Caps.

        It’s simple, the advance since the early June 2019 SP500 low at 2729 is mainly large cap AND defensive names (bond proxies and utilities). The NYSE A-D measured all components and be helped by the defensive component rally.

        Typically at a critical top the broader small cap names will diverge (like they are now), also the defensive names would be weak as well, dragging the NYSE A-D into a negative divergence wrt the SP500.

        This time is different as money seems to flowing into defensive names well head of the final top. This defensive investment time typically lags the key market top as investors get scared.

      • pugsma said

        Also the VIX is showing a positive divergence (higher low) at this new SP500 high versus the early May high. This is another potential negative for future SP500 price action.

  7. chrys50 said

    In 2007 it took about 3 months for the AD line to show divergence with the SP500. Interestingly, the time period is the same today – July through October (primary count?).

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&st=2007-01-02&en=2008-12-31&id=t1597188363c&a=542563495&r=1563017314731&cmd=print

  8. chrys50 said

    Steve & others – I came across a very interesting index – GYX – which is a base metals index. It appears that it spent the last 10 years basing in a triangle which looks like it is about to explode to the upside; possibly a wave 5. I just don’t know how it fits into EW for SPX except maybe Primary. Also, it doesn’t make sense so far as the economy in general. Base Metals should be tapering off this far into the economic cycle.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GYX&p=M&st=1980-01-02&en=2019-07-14&id=p43886380087&listNum=1&a=676289243

    Thoughts?

  9. rat8nine said

    spx vs $tnx weekly – it’s interesting to look at what spx did in relation to where $tnx turns occurred over the past 20 years. It would appear that they were roughly correlated up until around 2001, and then not so much. Then they turned down together last fall, and when spx turned up and moved to a higher high, $tnx didn’t. Is this another possible negative divergence?

  10. rat8nine said

    2940.91 – 2346.58 = 1.128 at 3016.98
    2954.13 – 2728.81 = 1.27 at 3014.97

  11. pugsma said

    Classic bearish rising wedge since 2913 low…

  12. rat8nine said

    qqq made a marginally higher intraday high vs the morning high, spy, dia, and iwm did not.

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