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July 3rd, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 3, 2019

1:35 pm EST:  Today saw the SP-500 close and new all-time high of 2996 and also a new all-time high on the DJIA 26,966 breaking the old high of 26,952 set back on October 3rd, 2018Thus, the DJIA has confirmed the SP-500 in making a new all-time high.  The Nasdaq hit 8170 today, just 6 points short of the all-time high of 8176 set April 4th, 2019.

Per the primary (white/green) count the SP-500 has been in a major [3]-P5-C1 bull wave since the 2729 low in early June.  Minor 2 of major [3] appears to have been a shallow pull-back that ended last week at 2913.   Minor 3 of major [3] is likely underway with a target of at least 3203, where minor 3 =1.23*minor 1.  Ultimately P5-C1 should reach the 3300 to 3600 area.

The alternate (blue) count has minor 5 of major [5]-P5-C1 underway off the recent 2913 low.  Meaning this alternate (blue) count is in the last gasp of the 10 year Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V bull market.  The maximum target of minor 5 is at 3002, so that the minor 3 wave is not the shortest (Elliott Wave Rule).  Thus, with today’s SP-500 move up to 2996, the alternate (blue) count is nearly dead.

So it’s pretty simple here, a break above 3002 will eliminates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

House Keeping:   The US Stock Markets are closed Thursday for the 4th of July Independence Day Holiday.  US Stock Markets will be open on Friday, July 5th.   As usual in the summer I don’t post updates on Friday.  The next blog update will on Monday, July 8th.

Have a safe and fun 4th of July Holiday and long weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

12 Responses to “July 3rd, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    As bullish as the past month has been (recall my Buy in May and Make some Hay market call), there is an issue with SP-500 price closing above its BB today. The last time that happened was in mid-day March 2019 and it lead a significant pull-back. Also, the VIX has close two consecutive days below its BB, which might mean a VIX spike is due.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

  2. pugsma said

    Strong June jobs report. Why do we need a rate cut?

  3. pugsma said

    It’s possible that from the minor 2 low at 2913 to 2996 (83 points) is 5 waves up to complete minute wave (1) of minor 3.

    38/50% Fib retrace is 2964 to 2954.

    Normal back-test of 2941 pivot break-out.

  4. pugsma said

    Keep in mind the “typical” monthly jobs day patten:

    If open down, drift higher…

  5. pugsma said

    Certainly looks like wave (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P5-C1 completed at 2996 and this is a minute (2) wave pull-back to the 38%/50%/62% Fib at 2964/2956/2944.

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