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June 27th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 27, 2019

4:55pm EST:   The drop to 2913 is likely minute (a) of minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 per the primary (white/green) wave count.  There should be a minute (b) wave bounce up to a 50% Fib retrace of 2938 and a the re-test the 2941 pivot area before a (c)=1.62(a) drop to the 38%/50% Fib area of 2874/2846.  There is a potential small head and shoulders top on the SP-500 15-min chart with head at 2964, neckline at 2911 and target of 2858, which agrees with the primary (white/green) wave count minor 2 target area of 2874/2846.   Ultimately the primary (white/green) count is targeting the 3300 to 3600 area for the P5-C1 top over the next 6 months to 1 year.

For the alternate (blue) count the drop from 2964 to 2913 is likely minor 4 of major [5]-P5-C1.   There should be more push to slightly above 2964 for minor 5 to complete major [5]-P5-C1.  The maximum for minor 5 is at 3002, so that the minor 3 wave is not the shortest wave of major [5].  It’s also possible the 2964 is the P5-C1 top per this alternate (blue) wave count.   If you look across the SP-500 daily, weekly and monthly charts you can see that there is significant negative divergences on the key momentum indicators of RSI and MACD.  This fits with the nearly 2 year long broadening top pattern for end of the Cycle 1 (C1) wave of Super Cycle V (SC-V).

Remember that unless the SP-500 begins to impulse upward again in a very aggressive way (i.e. a wave minor 3 of major [3) taking out the 3005 and 3051 levels, then the alternate (blue) count will grow in probability quickly and become the most likely scenario.   The large two year long broadening top pattern fits well with the underlying falling earnings and weakening macro economic data since Q3-2018.

House Keeping:   Tomorrow (Friday) is the last day of Q2-2019 (Apr-June) and the Semi-Annual-2019 (Jan-June) Premium Service.  Check your e-mails for the Q3 (July-Sept) and SA2 (July-Dec) Premium Service sign up information.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis



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