June 26th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on June 26, 2019
5:00 pm EST: Today’s drop to 2913 is likely minute (a) of minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 per the primary (green) wave count. There should be a minute (b) wave bounce up to the re-test the 2941 pivot before a (c)=1.62(a) drop to the 38%/50% Fib area of 2874/2846. However, it is also possible that the drop to 2913 is all of minor 2. There is potential positive divergence on the 15-min chart MACD and the 60-min chart RSI. Also, small caps (IWM) have already retraced to a 50% Fib.
For the alternate (blue) count the drop 2913 is likely minor 4 of major [5]-P5-C1. There should be more push above 2964 for minor 5 to complete major [5]-P5-C1. The maximum for minor 5 is at 3002, so that the minor 3 wave is not the shortest wave of major [5].
House Keeping: This week is the last week of Q2-2019 (Apr-June) and the Semi-Annual-2019 (Jan-June). Check your e-mails for the Q3 (July-Sept) and SA2 (July-Dec) sign up information.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
pugsma said
Cobra SPY Stat: SPY down 4 days in a row, 78% chance (45 of 58) of a lower low ahead (i.e. below 2913).
pugsma said
The primary (white/green) is basically a head and shoulders top with head at 2964, neckline at 2911 and target of 2858.
Right shoulder forming now as a minute (b) wave.
pugsma said
OT: So it looks like China is playing hardball on trade talks with a list of demands for a “balanced” trade. Remember I predicted over a week ago that Trump might begin to impose the tariffs on the final $300B of Chinese imports in order to: 1) pressure China into a deal and 2) pressure the US Fed into rate cuts.
This would likely drive a deep minor 2 wave drop.
pugsma said
And IF Trump miscalculates and China doesn’t cave into a deal, then there is a P5-C1 top right here as the alternative blue count.
doubleug said
Are you saying 2964 could be counted as the top of P5-C1?
pugsma said
Absolutely, it satisfied the Elliott Wave Requirements: 5 waves up from 2729 to a new high above P3 (2941) at 2964 to potentially end P5-C1.
kaneoahu said
Aren’t you looking for a negative divergence on NYAD to signal the cycle top?
pugsma said
There is no such requirement.
There are is already significant negative divergence in place on key momentum indicators like RSI and MCAD across the SP-500 daily, weekly and monthly charts.
pugsma said
Wave minute (b) should be two legs up.
Wave a-(b) was 2913 to 2928 or 15 points.
Wave b-(b) was 2928 to 2919 or 9 points.
Wave c-(b) target is c=a or 2919 + 15 = 2934. 50% Fib 2938.
pugsma said
Today’s SP-500 price action looks like a bear flag.