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June 26th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 26, 2019

5:00 pm EST:   Today’s drop to 2913 is likely minute (a) of minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 per the primary (green) wave count.  There should be a minute (b) wave bounce up to the re-test the 2941 pivot before a (c)=1.62(a) drop to the 38%/50% Fib area of 2874/2846.  However, it is also possible that the drop to 2913 is all of minor 2.  There is potential positive divergence on the 15-min chart MACD and the 60-min chart RSI.   Also, small caps (IWM) have already retraced to a 50% Fib.

For the alternate (blue) count the drop 2913 is likely minor 4 of major [5]-P5-C1.   There should be more push above 2964 for minor 5 to complete major [5]-P5-C1.  The maximum for minor 5 is at 3002, so that the minor 3 wave is not the shortest wave of major [5].

House Keeping:   This week is the last week of Q2-2019 (Apr-June) and the Semi-Annual-2019 (Jan-June).  Check your e-mails for the Q3 (July-Sept) and SA2 (July-Dec) sign up information.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


10 Responses to “June 26th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Cobra SPY Stat: SPY down 4 days in a row, 78% chance (45 of 58) of a lower low ahead (i.e. below 2913).

    • pugsma said

      The primary (white/green) is basically a head and shoulders top with head at 2964, neckline at 2911 and target of 2858.

      Right shoulder forming now as a minute (b) wave.

  2. pugsma said

    OT: So it looks like China is playing hardball on trade talks with a list of demands for a “balanced” trade. Remember I predicted over a week ago that Trump might begin to impose the tariffs on the final $300B of Chinese imports in order to: 1) pressure China into a deal and 2) pressure the US Fed into rate cuts.

    This would likely drive a deep minor 2 wave drop.

  3. pugsma said

    Wave minute (b) should be two legs up.

    Wave a-(b) was 2913 to 2928 or 15 points.

    Wave b-(b) was 2928 to 2919 or 9 points.

    Wave c-(b) target is c=a or 2919 + 15 = 2934. 50% Fib 2938.

  4. pugsma said

    Today’s SP-500 price action looks like a bear flag.

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