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June 19th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 19, 2019

4:20 pm EST:  The SP-500 made another new high above 2931 at 2932, as forecast.  At this point there are 5 waves up from the recent 2875 low for minor (4), satisfying the wave minute (5) of minor 1 of major [3]-P5-C1 requirement.   It’s possible minor 1 should still stretch up to the 2941 pivot area, but there should be a minor 2 retrace of at least 38%/50% to the 2869.2842 area soon.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

6 Responses to “June 19th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Some Commentary: So the Elliott Wave Technical Analysis (TA) calls for a retracement here in a minor 2 of major [3] wave. The TA most often “leads” the news. How can this happen here with markets near new all-time highs?

    The US President wants, in fact is demanding a US Federal Reserve, rate cut. It didn’t get it today at the June Fed meeting.

    The US President also wants a deal with China. But a deal with China before the July US Federal Reserve meeting might stop the Fed from giving the President is desired rate cut.

    So how can the President force this Fed rate cut and get his China deal. One way would be to threaten (or implement) new tariffs on $300B in the final batch of China imports. This will likely hurt the equity markets heading to the late July Fed meeting forcing and rate cut and maybe force China’s hand to make a broad trade deal.

    Then we’d see the very bullish minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 wave higher.

    Just food for thought.

  2. bobndusty said

    Which is also driving and fits the gold market pattern for those watching that count.

  3. pugsma said

    Two great charts to show us how dangerously late in the Cycle 1 bull wave we are now:

    • pugsma said

      There needs to be a new wave count that has C1 topping out between 2954 and 3051.

      That will be published here tonight.

    • pugsma said

      The 2nd chart of the Fed rate vs real 2-year T-note yield is very telling.

      The Fed made a major policy error last fall continuing to hike until a falling yield curve.

      Then compounded it by holding the Fed rate fixed all of 2019 into a drastically falling yield curve like in years 2000 and 2007.

      The bond market is always right a global recession has began since late 2018. It will likely last into 2021-2022 (ie the Cycle 2 wave).

  4. chrys50 said

    Steve – could you give us some perspective on Cycle 2. What did Cycle 2 look like in SC 3? Do you have dates for Cycle 2 in SC 3? Thx

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