Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

6:10 pm EST:   With the break below 2817 intra-day today (causing wave major [4] into [1] overlap), the primary (green) wave count I’ve been tracking since the December 24th, 2018 low at 2347 has to modified.   The modifications are potentially short-term (2 to 4 weeks) more bearish, but intermediate-term (IT) to long-term (LT) more bullish.

The primary (green) count is that the 5-wave move up from 2347 to 2954 is major [1]-P5-C1.  This move down from 2954 to 2801 is a minor A of major [2]-P5-C1.   Looking on the 15-min chart, it’s possible that there will be a slightly lower low than 2801 tomorrow to complete minor A above the 200-day SMA (2775).  Once minor A completes, there should be at 50% Fib retracement to the 2872 pivot area for minor B, before a final minor C wave drop to 2723 (the 38% Fib retrace of the major [1] wave).  This could take 2 to 4 weeks to complete major [2], more the major [3] wave takes the SP-500 well above 2954.   I’m looking at a potential Cup & Handle (C&H) pattern with a target of 3561 to complete P5-C1 sometime in the spring of 2020.

The alternate (blue) count variant is that this move down from 2954 to 2801 is all of major [2]-P5-C1, as double Zig-Zag.  This major [2] wave is simply a back-test of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) neckline at the 2807 pivot area.  By the alternate (blue) count, the major [3]-P5-C1 wave up to new highs above 2954 should be underway soon.  I have the P5-C1 target as the IHS target of 3287.

Alternate (red) count top of P5-C1 at 2954 has been removed, as it’s probably is very low at this point.  Never has there been a Cycle degree wave top without a significant NYSE A-D Line negative divergence and there is absolutely no negative divergence on the NYSE A-D Line at the SP500 2954 high.  The A-D Line made a new high along with the SP-500 price high.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

SP-500 weekly chart: