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May 10th, 2019: SP-500 Technical Analysis

Posted by pugsma on May 10, 2019

3:20 pm EST:    The key 2817 price held at the 2825 low, thus as mentioned yesterday, all 3 wave count options shown on the charts remain valid.   Only a break above 2954 or below 2817 will determine if the bullish (primary green/alt blue) or (bearish alt red) count wins out.  Count details and price targets show below on the charts.

Note:  The 4-hr chart shows an interesting potential back-test of the neckline (2817) of the bullish large Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) with target of 3287 (per the alt blue count).

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

33 Responses to “May 10th, 2019: SP-500 Technical Analysis”

  1. pugsma said

    The VIX closed back inside its upper BB, with is step 1 of the VIX Sell (SPX Buy) Signal trigger. Step 2 confirming with a red VIX on Monday.

    The NYMO closed bank inside its lower BB and triggered a SPX Buy signal. This is particularly good signal, since the NYMO spent 3 days below -40 and below its lower BB.

  2. rat8nine said

    I was out with a client this afternoon showing him condos in the financial district and in battery park city. Here is a view from the roof deck of one of the buildings in battery park city, and I also happened to walk past the nyse 😉

    • wbart21 said

      +1! What an awesome view/pic TY for sharing

      • Rodney Mruk said

        Thanks for sharing the photos Rat8nine. Looks awesome. I used to restore high rise buildings in Chicago. Roof top views are wonderful and inspiring.

    • rat8nine said

      Thanks to both of you. I am forever documenting my travels as a broker in Brooklyn and Manhattan, and love roof tops. I’ve built a couple of bluestone roof patios on small multifamily buildings in Brooklyn, and the first time I did one, I remember watching the 2′ x 3′ slabs of bluestone being walked up the stairs, two guys to a piece, and thinking “what if the structural engineer is wrong?”.

  3. rat8nine said

    spy 15 and spx 60

    In median line work, when I see sharp back to back moves – the down/ up in early may – I like to use a modified schiff set, anchored at the .50 of the first of the two moves. The lower line of that set held price the first time, but after the next bounce price kept going. You will often see me doubling up sets in an extreme move to find the next parallel that resonates off the initial median line set. The lower line caught price on spy this morning, with an external retrace of 1.27 from the low Thursday to the move up late Thursday.

    I have a modified schiff set (blue) and a standard set (green), and assuming wave [5] plays out as indicated, it will be interesting to see which one winds up catching price:

    • rat8nine said

      iwm 15 – when price peaked earlier this week, on Monday, the day that iwm was the only index to make a higher high, I put the purple bear median line set on, and the red line potential fib targets at .618, .786, .886, rt of the move up from 155.68, and at the external retracements of 1.128, and 1.27. It took all of them out but basically went right to a double low at the lower line, actually a couple of cents below the moment when I took the screen shot:

  4. pugsma said

    The break of 2817 this morning eliminates the primary green wave count as labeled.

    Alt blue is valid for minor 2 above 2722.

  5. pugsma said

    Even with the very good looking rally close of Friday, today is yet other example of how panic lows almost never occur on a Thursday/Friday, but more typically on a Monday/Tuesday.

  6. rat8nine said

    spx external retracements from the Friday low – high:

    2825.39 – 2891.31 = 1.128 at 2816.95
    2825.39 – 2891.31 = 1.27 at 2807.59

  7. pugsma said

    So far the bullish IHS neckline (2817) and 2807 pivot area is holding.

    On A break of 2807 pivot, there will likely br a test of the 200-SMA is at 2775.

  8. kazoom1618 said

    SPX 60min:

    back to 62% rt of 2722, +div x 2

  9. pugsma said

    Another thing to note today that the SP-500 has opened below its lower BB and barring a big rally will likely close below its BB. That is typically a sign of a lower low ahead, (ie. not the ST low today).

  10. scatman12 said

    so we are back to red count correct since 2817 has been taken out?

    • pugsma said

      The current version the primary green count is invalid below 2817. However I’m investigating another option of that count that is valid.

      The very bullish alt blue is valid above 2722.

      The alt red remains valid below 2954.

      • rat8nine said

        Steve, I’m curious what the wave count of the rise off the December low looks like in the event the red count winds up being in play?

      • rat8nine said

        Ah, I see them. For some reason, on my computer monitor, some markings on the charts aren’t as clear, but when I go to view on my ipad they are sharper, and everything is clear. They are where I thought they might be, thanks! Note that I’m not saying I see the red count as higher probability, I just realized that I hadn’t been tracking that possible count.

  11. pugsma said

    Just keep in mind that no cycle degree top has ever formed without a significant negative divergence on the NYSE A-D line. This the alt red count is low probability.

  12. pugsma said

    What if instead of an inverse head and shoulders (IHS) patten with a head at 2347, neckline of 2817 and target of 2817 + (2817-2347) = 3287

    It’s a Cup and Handle (CAH) pattern with bottom of cup at 2347, rim of the cup at 2954, handle at 2801 to 2775 and a target at 2954 + (2954-2347) = 3561 😎

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