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March 1st, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 1, 2019

1:00 pm EST:   The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [1]-P5-C1 ended at 2813 and the major [2] wave is underway to a 23%/38% Fibonacci retrace at 2705/2636.   Minor W of major [2] looks to have completed at 2775.  Minor X looks to have completed today at 2808.  Next there should be at least one more minor Y wave down to the 2695 pivot.  Breaking below the 2759 pivot will confirm this primary (green) wave count.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P5-C1 has been underway since the major [2] low at 2444.  Minor 1 of major [3] ended at 2675, minor 2 at 2613.   Since the minor 2 low at 2613, the minor 3 wave has been underway with a target to at least the minor 3 = 1.38*minor 1 at 2932.   Within minor 3 wave minute (1) completed at 2739 and minute (2) at 2682.   The minute (3) =1.62*(1) target is at 2886.

In the end, both wave counts are headed for P5=P1 target at 3051 to complete Cycle 1 (C1).  It is simply a matter of the wave path to this target.   The primary (green) count should see a significant pull-back for major [2] next and the alternate (blue) count sees the major [3] wave continuing to march relentlessly higher.

House Keeping:  I’m leaving the country on a 9 day vacation beginning Sunday, March 3rd and returning Monday, March 11th.  There will be little to no blog updates during this time, as I don’t know when and if I’ll have internet access.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


33 Responses to “March 1st, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Looks like an expanded flat wave for major [2].

  2. pugsma said

    Double Top (2816) target 2721.

  3. hmeda said

    The low may be in. $NYMO way below the lower BB:

  4. rat8nine said

    spx 5 and 15 – 2721 would be below the lower lines, but over the next couple of days they should coincide…the 15 shows it better

  5. chrys50 said

    If we are in primary count with WXY we are now in the Y wave down. Y wave should consist of an ABC pattern. It appears that wave ‘a’ completed at 2767 and wave ‘b’ at 2796. We are now in wave ‘c’ (down) consisting of 5 waves. Working on wave 1 of c of Y.

    Steve – is this your thinking? Thx

  6. pugsma said

    Today remember the “NYMO close 2 consecutive days below lower BB and below -40, SPX buy signal.” This typically leads to a big move up for the SPX during a bull trend, like we had this year.


  7. kazoom1618 said

    SPX 10min – the gap below at 2710-2720 could be a target today:

  8. pugsma said

    The drop below the 2759 pivot and extreme NYMO weakness below -40 is confirmation of the primary count major [2] wave headed for the 23%/38% Fibonacci retrace targets is 2705/2636.

    Remember the double top (2813 and 2817) target I called out yesterday is 2721.

  9. rat8nine said

    spx 15 as of now – median line perfection here at the lower line…however….we know there are those areas below, and that there is nothing that says the lower line will hold price…

  10. pugsma said

    Today “could” be the 5th down day in a row for SPX. According to a chart from Cobra since the bull market began in March 2009, down 5 days in a row leads to new high above where it began in next 5 to 10 days in 17 of 18 cases (94%). Only failure was the crash of August 2011.

  11. pugsma said

    2day ago call of a Double top target at 2721 should be hit near open today.

    • pugsma said

      Beautiful double top target hit at 2722 to likely complete major [2].

      First minor 1 of major [3] wave underway to move above 2817, then above 2940. P5=P1 target of 3051.

      Five down days in a row, SPX buy trigger.

      Three days of NYMO closes below lower BB and below -40, SPX buy trigger.

      Have a wonderful weekend!!!

  12. pugsma said

    Cobra published a really interesting stat on Friday evening about SPY down 5 days in a row.

    Since year 2008, SPY down 5 days in a row (like last week):

    88% (22 in 25) lower low ahead before new high. (that is, the low is not in at 2722).

    96% (24 in 25) that it’s a buying opportunity with new highs to come (move above 2817 to come).

    • pugsma said

      Basically looking at the 10 year chart with SPY marked as 5 days in a row down shows 88% (22 to 25) of the time SPY continued drop for a few more days or a slight rebound for a day or two and then more down for a week or so. But not a whole lot more down after the 5 consecutive days low at 2722 (typically another 1 to 3% down to 2701 to 2636).

      Then 96% (24 of 25) the SPY makes a new high above 2817 in the next few weeks. The one time it didn’t was August 2011. It crashed down another -15%!!!

    • pugsma said

      Cobra indicated on Friday he would sell all longs bought Friday into any further rally today.

      He said he would play the 88% probability of a lower low than 1722, versus the 12% probability of up to new highs above 2817.

      • rat8nine said

        Steve, these stats are really interesting given that this is not only opex week, but the fomc rate decision is Wednesday afternoon. I’m trying to remember from Denali’s work whether major turns were likely a week ahead of oe Friday, and it seems to me that turns were mostly oe Thursday through the Tuesday following.

      • Jet Ski said

        Thanks for the heads up! If a lower low is ahead, does wave 2, then become an a-b-c?

      • chrys50 said

        So Major 2 of the primary could be a WXYZ pattern with wave Z lower than 2722?

      • rat8nine said

        I apologize for misleading everyone about when fomc is – I read the calendar too fast and thought it was this week; it is next week.

  13. rat8nine said

    spy and qqq 15 as of now:

  14. pugsma said

    NYMO looks looks like it will close near -30, well below zero line needed for confirmation of a sustainable new bull wave higher.
    This plus Cobras 88% (22 of 25) probability of a lower low below 2722, Indicate major [2] more likely to reach 2701 to 2636 targets.

  15. rat8nine said

    spy fibs:
    291.52 – 233.76 = .786 at 279.16
    281.87 – 272.42 = .786 at 279.85

    • rat8nine said

      updated spy:

      Double .786

      291.52 – 233.76 = .786 at 279.16
      281.87 – 272.42 = .786 at 279.85

      And it just set it up at 280.00 so that:

      233.76 – 281.87 = .23 at 270.80
      272.42 – 280.00 = 1.27 at 270.37

      And C=A at 270.55

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