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February 27th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 27, 2019

5:30 pm EST:    The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [1]-P5-C1 ended at 2813 and the major [2] wave is underway to a 23%/38% Fibonacci retrace at 2705/2636.   Minor W of major [2] looks to have completed today at 2775.  Once minor X completes below 2813, there should be at least one more minor Y wave down to the 2695 pivot.  Breaking below the 2759 pivot will confirm this primary (green) wave count.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P5-C1 has been underway since the major [2] low at 2444.  Minor 1 of major [3] ended at 2675, minor 2 at 2613.   The minor 3 wave has been underway with a target to at least the minor 3 = 1.38*minor 1 at 2932.   Within minor 3 wave minute (1) completed at 2739 and minute (2) at 2682.   The minute (3) =1.62*(1) target is at 2886.

In the end both wave counts are headed for P5=P1 target at 3051 to complete Cycle 1 (C1).  It is now simply a matter of the wave path to this target.   The primary (green) count see a significant pull-back for major [2] next and the alternate (blue) count sees the major [3] wave continuing to march relentlessly higher.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


14 Responses to “February 27th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Your new Blue count really has put some pressure on my trading here. My thought here is to lighten up, as if the blue count becomes primary, I will not be a happy camper. Would you give the blue count a 20% chance? Just your categorizing this wave as marching relentlessly higher, is not something you want to get in front of.

  2. pugsma said

    House Keeping: no need to update the charts tonight.

  3. pugsma said

    FYI Cobra’s historical data for 3 down data in row predicts a lower low below 2775 before going above 2813.

    • MS53 said

      Do you see a flat for ii blue as a possibility here down to 2759 pivot area and 38 to 50 retrace ?

    • rat8nine said

      What I saw this morning was this:

      spy 281.31 – 277.48 = .886 at 280.87 — high today at 280.88
      qqq 174.66 – 171.76 = .942 at 174.49 — high today at 174.57
      iwm 159.50 – 156.12 = .618 at 158.21 — high today at 158.25
      dia 262.36 – 258.77 = .786 at 261.59 — high today at 261.54

  4. rat8nine said

    The action in the long bond is quite interesting here as well….I wonder about a potential thrust back up to the upper blue line once this move down completes?

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