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December 20th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 20, 2018

4:25 pm EST:    The SP-500 is likely very close to key intermediate term (3 to 6 month) bottom here between the 2453 and 2401 pivots.  The 2815 to 2604 price range break-down and triangle target are at 2393.   The NYMO and SP500 both again closed below respective BB, setting up the SP-500 Buy trigger for the 2nd time this week.  The NYMO is near the extreme -100 level, which typically is where a big move up in SP500 price occurs.   The VIX also again closed above its upper BB, setting up an SPX Buy trigger.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

The primary red count has been modified to show the beginning of Cycle 2 (C2) as a major [A]-[B]-[C] of Primary W (PW) wave.   The major [C]=[A] target is 2463, which was hit today.  PW wave could have ended today at 2441 or there could be one more wave minor 4 of major [C] wave up to 2540 before a final minor 5 of major [C] down to re-test 2441 to 2401.   Once the PW wave ends, there should be a significant PX wave move up to the 50%/62% Fibonacci at 2692/2752.  This PX wave move up should last several months into the early spring 2019.   For the there a bigger PY-C2 wave will drop to the 50% C1 Fibonacci retrace at 1804 into the year 2020 (see SP-500 weekly chart).

The alternate blue count remains that major [4]-P5-C1 is ending here between the 2453 to 2401 pivots, before a final major [5]-P5-C1 wave up to new all-time highs above 2491 into the 3000 to 3200 area.  This major [5] wave up should last 9 to 12 months into late 2019.

Which wave count ultimately wins, out will not be determined until the 2695 to 2759 pivot are re-test into the spring of 2019.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=17db3c1f-c6e5-4bee-98f4-c4422dd34260

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

2:45 pm EST:  Here is a quick look at the weekly chart showing the updated red and blue wave counts and why this 2453 to 2401 pivot area is likely a key bottoming area for both wave counts.   I’ll update the short-term charts before the close.

SP-500 Weekly Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

 
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