Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with SP500 technical analysis, stock analysis and more. Read our technical analysis blog to learn more.

October 11th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 11, 2018

5:50pm EST:  As has been my policy when the market gets extremely volatile to the downside, it’s time to stick to the wave count on the larger time frame charts (i.e. 4-hr, daily and weekly) and larger wave degrees (i.e. minor, major and primary waves).

The Primary (red) count is that Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) topped at 2941.  The Cycle 2 (C2) wave is underway and will likely head for at least a 50% Fibonacci retrace of the C1 wave at 1805.   Minor 3 of major [1]-PA-C2 looks like it could have bottomed at 2711 today.   I’m expecting a minor 4 wave 23%/38% Fibonacci retrace to 2764/2798, before a final minor 5 of major [1] low near the 2695 pivot.  From the major [1] low, there should be an even larger major [2] wave rebound that will ultimately fail below 2941.

The alternate (blue) count is that the 2941 high was only minor 1 of major [5]-P5-C1 and that this large drop is a minor 2 wave to the 62%/78% Fibonacci retrace target of 2726/2671.  Once the minor 2 wave is complete the minor 3, 4, and 5 waves will take the SP-500 price to one more all-time new high above 2941 with a target of 3041.   This alternate (blue) count is valid for minor 2 of major [5] above the major [4] low at 2595.

House Keeping:  I’ll be out of town on Friday through Sunday night.  The next blog update will be on Monday, Oct 15th.

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


13 Responses to “October 11th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    According several charts and SPX historical stats from Cobra there is 100% chance of a low below 2710 after a one to three day bounce.

  2. chrys50 said

    Just curious.. is there anything to suggest that major [2] wave will be out of the ordinary (.50 or .62 RT)? There are a couple of gaps at 2920 and 2875.

  3. MS53 said

    Looks like a triangle to me off today’s 2929 low.

  4. kazoom1618 said

    Looks like we’re on track to trigger step #2 of the NYMO and VIX buy signals – but SPX missed its lower BB.

    p.s. MS53 – we’re 200 pts below your triangle 🙂 I know, it takes a bit of getting used to.

    • rat8nine said

      I don’t love how far below the lower bb spx is….here’s a thought….spx in abc up for (4), signal fails, all three go back outside their bb’s on wave (5), setting up the trifecta again….that would satisfy the odds given by Cobra…

    • MS53 said

      lol…. should have included that it looked like (4) of 5, [1] red count triangle

  5. rat8nine said

    This is most interesting, from one of the few serious people who predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Number 8 has Steve’s liquidity crisis.

  6. pugsma said

    We want to see a new SPX low below 2711 on reduced volume and +DIV on $NYMO vs SPX daily close.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: