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October 11th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 11, 2018

5:50pm EST:  As has been my policy when the market gets extremely volatile to the downside, it’s time to stick to the wave count on the larger time frame charts (i.e. 4-hr, daily and weekly) and larger wave degrees (i.e. minor, major and primary waves).

The Primary (red) count is that Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) topped at 2941.  The Cycle 2 (C2) wave is underway and will likely head for at least a 50% Fibonacci retrace of the C1 wave at 1805.   Minor 3 of major [1]-PA-C2 looks like it could have bottomed at 2711 today.   I’m expecting a minor 4 wave 23%/38% Fibonacci retrace to 2764/2798, before a final minor 5 of major [1] low near the 2695 pivot.  From the major [1] low, there should be an even larger major [2] wave rebound that will ultimately fail below 2941.

The alternate (blue) count is that the 2941 high was only minor 1 of major [5]-P5-C1 and that this large drop is a minor 2 wave to the 62%/78% Fibonacci retrace target of 2726/2671.  Once the minor 2 wave is complete the minor 3, 4, and 5 waves will take the SP-500 price to one more all-time new high above 2941 with a target of 3041.   This alternate (blue) count is valid for minor 2 of major [5] above the major [4] low at 2595.

House Keeping:  I’ll be out of town on Friday through Sunday night.  The next blog update will be on Monday, Oct 15th.

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

13 Responses to “October 11th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    According several charts and SPX historical stats from Cobra there is 100% chance of a low below 2710 after a one to three day bounce.

  2. chrys50 said

    Just curious.. is there anything to suggest that major [2] wave will be out of the ordinary (.50 or .62 RT)? There are a couple of gaps at 2920 and 2875.

  3. MS53 said

    Looks like a triangle to me off today’s 2929 low.

  4. kazoom1618 said

    Looks like we’re on track to trigger step #2 of the NYMO and VIX buy signals – but SPX missed its lower BB.

    p.s. MS53 – we’re 200 pts below your triangle 🙂 I know, it takes a bit of getting used to.

    • rat8nine said

      I don’t love how far below the lower bb spx is….here’s a thought….spx in abc up for (4), signal fails, all three go back outside their bb’s on wave (5), setting up the trifecta again….that would satisfy the odds given by Cobra…

    • MS53 said

      lol…. should have included that it looked like (4) of 5, [1] red count triangle

  5. rat8nine said

    This is most interesting, from one of the few serious people who predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Number 8 has Steve’s liquidity crisis.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/13/recession-2020-financial-crisis-nouriel-roubini

  6. pugsma said

    We want to see a new SPX low below 2711 on reduced volume and +DIV on $NYMO vs SPX daily close.

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