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October 5th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 5, 2018

8:15 pm EST:  So far the drop from 2941 to 2869 just looks like a simple break-out and back-test of the 2872 January high (alternate blue count).   The SP-500 price will have to break below 2802 and 2791 (minor 1 high) in order to confirm the P5-C1 top at 2941 (primary red count).

Have a wonderful weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

13 Responses to “October 5th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Steve, thanks for the update. Several days ago you mentioned the neg div on the daily MACD, RSI, NYMO and NYSE AD. Where are they are at now?

    • pugsma said

      The daily chart negative divergence all key momentum indicators is growing in amplitude and time. Another new high on the SPX above 2941 would likely only make it more pronounced.

  2. Tomas Jarvik said

    I need some help here. I see the red and blue counts, but it looks like it will take a 70 point move up or down on the S&P to confirm one or the other. That can’t be right, can it.

  3. lauter1 said

    A few (short term) possible bullish items have surfaced:
    – Put/Call Ratio very high:
    – NYMO had 2 consecutive closes outside BB band while below -40, and if I have my Pug notes correct, this gives a high probability of a move up thereafter.
    – VIX closing outside BB band, without bands expanding

  4. pugsma said

    For Alt blue a long winded triangle minor makes sense here.

  5. pugsma said

    Apparently Tom McClellan has shown that no major Cycle degree top has ever occurred without at least a 3 month only NYSE A-D line negative divergence.

    We are only just now entering month 2 of this negative divergence. This gives the alternative blue some validity. As another new SPX high on a 3 month NYSE A-D -Div would be very bearish.

  6. JW said

    With either count, if SPX closes today below its lower BB, and both VIX and NYMO again close below their respective lower BB, this “trifecta” close could drive a healthy bounce, before providing more guidance on which count will play out.

  7. pugsma said

    We also have the VIX opening and likely closing above its BB today. That is almost 100% that a lower low than today is coming.

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