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September 11th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 11, 2018

4:20 pm EST:   The primary (red) wave count is that Cycle 2 (C2) topped at 2719 in late August and the Cycle 2 (C2) wave down to a 50% Fib retrace of C1 is underway headed for at 1792.  Minute wave (1) hit 2864 and now minute (2) of minor 1 of major [1]-PA-C2 is headed to the 50%/62% Fib retrace target of 2891/2897.  Once wave (2) completes, minute wave (3) should drop towards the (3)=1.62(1) target at 2805.   The minor 1 target is at 2272.   This red wave count would go invalid above 2917.

The alternate (blue) wave count is in a wave iii of minute (3) of minor 3 of major [5]-P5-C1 is underway for the wave ii-(3) low at 2864.  The wave iii-(3) target is at 2979, where iii=i.  The wave (3) target is at 2994, where (3)=1.23(1).  And the minor 3 target is 3010, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  Ultimately, major [5]-P5-C1 should reach at least the major [4] triangle target at 3041.   The alternate blue wave count would go invalid on move blow 2802.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


12 Responses to “September 11th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. JW said

    Why have you flipped the counts with “primary red” and “alternate blue”?

    • pugsma said

      What’s labeled primary red has been the primary wave count since at least January 2018 if not longer. It was called Primary Green, but once the C1 top at 2917 it gets re-named primary red as C2 is bear wave. Red labels are bear wave labels listed on my blog wave count notes on the left-hand side.

      • Houston Huang said

        I never forget the age old saying here “the primary is the primary is the primary” but it’s best I ask the obvious just so we are all clear on this – are you of the view now that the primary red count is the more probable count than the alternate blue count and if so what are the reasons that led to this change in view?

      • Rodney Mruk said

        It makes little difference to me since Steve gave all his reasoning as to why the probability of the current blue count is higher than the current red count, but just for clarity sake:
        Posted by pugsma on September 7, 2018

        3:55 pm EST: The SP-500 primary (blue) wave count is looking higher towards 3041 (3211 possible) for the top of P5-C1 into early to mid-year 2019.


  2. pugsma said

    The remaining condition that we need to determinate a SPX primary/cycle degree top is divergence on $NYSE A-D line. It’s starting to materialize. And any re-test of 2917 or slight move above should do it.$NYAD

    • pugsma said

      A good compromise wave count between red/blue is a count were minor 3 topped at 2917 and now this is a minor 4 wave setting up the required $NYSE A-D -DIV on the final minor 5 push up to re-test 2917.

      • pugsma said

        The 2 week and counting time of this on going drop from 2917 fits a minor 4 wave. Also it has already corrected to the typical 23% Fib at 2865. 38% Fib at 2831 still a possibly. Might end up being a triangle

    • pugsma said

      A lot of these are looking like the Aug-Oct 2017 double top for Cycle B of SC-IV.

    • lauter1 said

      Let’s also keep an eye on SPY selling on strength, which I’d expect to gradually increase on green days. It’s started a bit with $500m yesterday and $300m today.

  3. rat8nine said

    spy daily and 15

    I’m seeing a number of individual stocks that appear to have reached logical target areas, but a close look at spy, qqq, and iwm 60 minute charts suggest that their moves are not complete, despite reaching target areas. The quick sudden drops that lose steam and go nowhere are something we see near tops, but when they haven’t been reached. None of this is absolutely predictive, rather they are clues.

    spy has a most interesting confluence of fib targets now, which are a little too perfect, but they are what they are:

    284.21 – 250.79 = 1.27 at 293.23
    278.04 – 253.53 = 1.618 at 293.19
    291.74 – 286.71 = 1.27 at 293.10

    What if this potential minor 4 is not quite in, and there is a throw down to a slightly lower low? There is an area below, were the last external fib retracement above would stretch a bit based a lower low, but still coincide with the larger retracement.

    • orioncolorado said

      That would fit well with Cobra’s possible 60 min buy the dip coupon exhaustion transitioning into a Daily btd coupon window.

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