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May 2nd, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 2, 2018

4:35 pm EST:  The SP-500 closed down -19 points at 2635 and is now just 20 points above the 200-day SMA at 2615.   This sets up a dangerous technical situation, as the 200-day SMA has already been tested 3 times with each successive bounce weaker than the one previous.  Also, the SP-500 price is below all three key short-term moving averages (13-day EMA, 34-day EMS and 50-day SMA) and those moving averages are aligned pointing downward.   Finally the $NYMO has failed close above the zero line and is setting in the -20 to zero “crash zone” after dropping below it recently.  That said, all 3-wave count are still on the table here between 2613 and 2717.   A break of this range will be the key to separate the counts.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

26 Responses to “May 2nd, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. I can see a bullish scenario despite breaking 2613 with E (4) reaching the bottom of the triangle at 2570-2580. This scenario fits better with the index in europe. Is this something you consider possible or it is too early?

    • pugsma said

      It’s possible, but keep in mind the DJIA already broke below the SPX 2556 equivalent in easy April and now yesterday below 2613 equivalent. DJIA has been leading…

      • pugsma said

        Also there is still the 90% probability, Cobra SPY historical data, that argues the SPX owes us a new low below 2556.

      • pugsma said

        And the WHOLE World, both professionals and average Joe, sees the big SPX Triangle pattern now. Most think it’s a bullish continuation patten, so the market will its best to fool them. Likely a triangle break down panic selloff to clear the weak hands before reversing.

      • Patrick Flanagan said

        i see 2586 on your chart for possible E, any scenario where E is not in yet on primary ? thanks

  2. MS53 said

    The “first way, wrong way ” adage for fed announcement worked beautifully with the technical today after initial pop to 2660 and then reversal into the close. The two previous fed days this year marked initiation of strong downside follow thru in SPX, as supported by EW/TA.

  3. rat8nine said

    spy 60 in the .382/.447 zone on all three of these down swing retracements:

  4. Patrick Flanagan said

    Steve to clarify, could we get a slightly lower than 2586 as new E , then rebound.

  5. pugsma said

    Absolute last chance here for the primary wave count minor E wave to hold above the minor C low at 2554.

    For the minor E wave coming down from the minor D high at 2717, we wave (a) at 2613 and (b) at 2683. Thus, (c)=(a) = 2579.

    The 78%/88% Fib retrace is 2590/2673.

  6. rat8nine said

    spx 60 as of now – median line wise, and fib wise, there is a thicket of potential support coming up

  7. pugsma said

    My potential trading plan with cash due to count uncertainty:

    1) 1/3 long at 2579 (primary target)
    2) 1/3 long at 2533 (double bottom potential on break of 2554)
    3) 1/3 long at 2463 (alt blue target)

  8. kazoom1618 said

    WIth computer precision, a 62% retrace from yesterday’s high perfectly closes this morning’s gap.

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