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March 21st, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 21, 2018

5:15 pm EST: The SP-500 continues to advance in the primary (green) count minor 3 of major [5]-P5-C1 wave off the minor 2 low of 2647.   The minor 3 = 1 target is at 2903 and the major [5]=[1] target is at 2917.   Within the minor 3 wave, minute (1) reached 2802 and now the minute (2) correction is complete (2695) at the 62%/78% Fib retrace of 2706/2681 and 2695 pivot support.   Once minute (2) completes, wave (3) will be underway headed above 2802.

The alternate (blue) count is that the move up from 2533 to 2802 is a minor B of major [4]-P5-C1 wave at the 78% Fibonacci retrace of the minor A of major [4] drop from 2872 to 2533.  The SP-500 has a potential double top at the 2789/2802 area.  A break below 2647 triggers a double top measured move to 2647 – (2802-2647) = 2492 for the completion of the minor C of major [4] wave.   Note that the C=A targets is at 2463.

The key level to watch here on the SP-500 is the swing low at 2647.  Above 2647, we have the primary count to new all-time highs above 2872.  Below 2647 the SP-500 should drop back to the 2463 area.

House Keeping:  Beginning tomorrow morning, I will be out of town in Boston for viewing my Purdue Boilermakers in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 .   The next blog post will be on Monday, March 26th.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

40 Responses to “March 21st, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Nice. Bonus time with the family. Hey, maybe the Noles will meet the Boilermakers in April. 🙂

  2. I looked at your approx end date for the top! It is a major Bradley turn date of 5/29!

    • rbailey2447 said

      Where has PUG given a potential end date for the top?

      • MS53 said

        He does not give date specific predictions, only ranges like April to August for the top. If you look on 60 min chart above and align the projected P5 top with the date below, it looks like about May 1st, but not set in stone.

      • chrys50 said

        Price trumps time in Elliott. So, if we reach Steve’s target tomorrow or a month from now that’s it; not withstanding extensions since we are in a wave 5.

  3. that was fast bounced of minute 2 78% at 2681.

  4. pugsma said

    So along with the primary count major [5] impulse wave off the 2533 low, we have the major [4] contracting triangle variant that is affectively the save for levels but will stall here between 2647 and 2756 for a another week or two. This wound only be minor C down of that major [4] triangle, with minor D up and E down to come.

  5. MS53 said

    SPX 2630 is the .62 retrace of minor 1 , also the 150 day SMA.

  6. rat8nine said

    spy 60 – coming into a key area here…the median line does not have to get hit, and if it doesn’t, there will be a failed bear setup in median line terms. Price is now in the area where:

    251.91 – 279.29 = .50 at 265.60
    263.76 – 279.29 = .886 at 265.53

  7. rat8nine said

    Steve, I will be most interested to see an update on TLT if you get a chance. The bounce today to the .382 had the look of the potential end of a bear flag on the 60 minute.

  8. chrys50 said

    Speaking of time (see above) Minute 1 is almost equal to Minute 2 (at 2662) in the number of bars (15 minute chart). Symmetry sometimes works; but price is the most important.

  9. MS53 said

    Step 1 on all 3 trifecta buy signals here at close. VIX,NYMO,SPX below daily BB’s

  10. Thailand Hawaii said

    Steve, can you give us some help with the break of 2647? Is it the Alternate or the wave 4 triangle?

  11. pugsma said

    Besides the major [4] triangle count, there is still an impulse wave [5] possibility here with minor 1 at 2789 and minor 2 as a flat wave, were the 62%/78% Fibonacci retracement is 2630/2589. Both counts must hold above the 2533 February low. Note the rising 200-day is now up to 2585.

  12. MS53 said

    FSU Seminoles roll Gonzaga 75-60. Into the Elite 8 we go. Don’t stop now.

  13. pugsma said


  14. rat8nine said

    spx 60 – not to confuse anyone, the counts are here for my reminder only. Price is at an area of interest in median line work, just below the .618. It would appear that both counts are alive and well so far.

  15. lauter1 said

    At the 2625 low, DJI and SPX showing potential 3 wave patterns:

  16. pugsma said

    If history is any guide, during volatile times the equity markets typically bottoms on the day I return from a trip (in this case Monday 3-26-18). Either in the overnight ES futures or during that morning.

  17. pugsma said

    Boom there it is 2585 on the nose. Bulls need a prayer answered over the weekend or else it’s SPX 2463 to 2424 early next week.

  18. pugsma said

    If 2585 holds as minor C of major [4] wave primary count contracting triangle, then minor D should rise to the 2759 pivot and minor E back down to 2658 pivot completing major [4].

    The midpoint of the major [4] is (2872-2533)/2 = 2702.

    The major [5] triangle targets are:

    2702 + (2872-2533) = 3041 typical target.
    2872 + (2872-2533) = 3211 maximum target

    Minimum target is at major [5] = [1] = 2917.

  19. chrys50 said

    Looks like we are on a Zweig Thrust watch with a reading below .40 last Friday.

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