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February 12th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 12, 2018

3:10 pm EST:   The primary (green) wave count is a major [4]-P5-C1 low at 2533, just below the typical wave [4] 38% Fibonacci retrace (2573) and right at the rising 200-day SMA (2540).    The major [5]-P5 wave up is underway as a minor 1-2-3-4-5 wave impulse.  The typical major [5]=[1] target is at 2917, which could form a bearish double top or head and shoulders pattern or the summer into the fall.    The first minor 1 wave of major [5] should carry into the 2695 to 2759 pivot area before a 50% retrace for the minor 2 wave.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that the 2533 low is only the minor A of major [4]-P5-C1 wave and that this move up to a 50%/62% retrace (2703/2743) is a minor B of major [4] wave.  Thus, there will be one more lower low below 2533 for minor C of major [4] at the C=A target of 2404.

For a clue to which wave count is correct, we can watch the reaction or the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) has it approaches the -20 to zero area (it’s to -40 today from the -118 low last Tuesday).   An $NYMO move above the zero line is typical of a bullish impulse wave to new highs in the SP-500 (primary count).  A failure at or below the $NYMO zero line is indicative of a coming lower low for the SP-500. (alternate count).

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=fc6a06ce-f590-4055-be98-177be44fce03

SP-500 5-min chart

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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