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May 18th, 2017: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 18, 2017

2:30 pm EST:  Wave 4’s are often vary frustrating for traders.  This major [4]-P5-C1 has certainly not disappointed.   There are still several valid wave count options still present even with the quick drop from 2406 to 2353.   They are listed in order of probability below.   As always I don’t eliminate a primary wave count until it has been fully violated and in this case above SPX 2345, the primary count is still valid.

After pulling up the SPX charts and looking at them, we can’t discount the primary (green) count until the minor E of major [4]-P5-C1 low of 2345 is breached.  So far the move down form 2404 to 2353 is a deep minor 2 wave 88% Fib retracement of the minor 1 of major [5] move up from 2345 to 2404.  As long as 2345 is not breached minor 3 of major [5] should get underway headed to a new all-time high above 2406.  The minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is 2449.

The alternate (blue) wave count is a major [4]-P5-C1 ascending triangle with minor C hitting 2353.  Minor C must hold above the minor A low of 2322 to remain valid ascending triangle wave count.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count for the major [4] ascending triangle could take 1 to 2 more months to play out in waves minor D up to 2401 and minor E back down to 2366.

The new alternate (red) wave count is a major [4] flat of expanded flat that just completed minor B at 2406 and is now is a minor C wave down to the 23%/38% Fibonacci retrace targets of 2306/2248.   The minute (1) of minor C wave ended at 2353.  Minute (2) should retrace 50% to 2380, before minute (3) drops to a new low below 2322.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:


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