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November 14th, 2016: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on November 14, 2016

4:00 pm EST:  The primary (white/green) count wave count is that wave (3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 is underway with initial target at (3)=2.62*(1) = 2290.  The minor 3 target is at 2332, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1, the major [3] = 1.23*[1] target is at 2375 and the P5=P1 target 2513 to complete the Cycle 1 wave.  A very bullish IT-LT outcome indeed.  The SP-500 price must now hold above 2125 and 2085 and move above 2194 for confirmation.

However the weak internals (see the $NYSE Adv-Dec Line Chart) for this wave up off 2084 have me concerned that the primary wave count is far too bullish.   Typically when a major top forms, like the Cycle 1 (C1) top we are looking for here, the $NYSE Adv-Dec will show a large multi-month negative divergence (-DIV) with SP-500 price.   We could be seeing that type of scenario building here as the $NYSE Adv-Dec is severely lagging during this SP-500 advance from 2084 to 2182.   There I’m proposing an alternate (blue) wave count that I think looks highly probable as the P5-C1 top outcome.


The alternate (blue) wave count is that the P5-C1 wave off the 1810 P4-C1 low is playing out as an Ending Diagonal (ED) with the recent low at 2084 as major [4]-P5-C1 and this final move up as major [5]-P5-C1.   For an ED wave major [4] can overlap major [1] and there is a requirement that major [5] < [3] < [1].   That would mean that the maximum for P5 is at 2286, where [5]=[3].    The move up from 2084 to 2182 is minor A of major [5] and now this triangle wave is minor B or is wave (b) of minor B with a wave (c) drop to a 50% retrace at 2133 yet to come.   Finally minor C will move to make a marginal new high above 2194.  For minor B at 2133, C=A = 2231.   Also, there P5 = 0.62*P1 target at 2246 that fits well here with the ED maximum target area.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=82f5e2f5-4004-4d83-9e65-1408f8841be1

SP-500 15-min chart:


SP-500 60-min chart:


SP-500 4-hr chart:


SP-500 daily chart:


SP-500 weekly chart:


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