PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

September 15th, 2016: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 15, 2016

3:40 pm EST:  The primary (green) wave count is that the major [4]-P5-C1 correction completed at the 38% Fibonacci retrace target of 2119 (2117).  With the SPX major [4]-P5 wave move below the major [1]-P5 high of 2121, it means that the P5-C1 wave is playing out as an Ending Diagonal (ED) that must complete below 2321, where major [5] < [3] < [1].   Minor A of major [5]-P5 is underway as a 5-wave move up of the 2119 major [2] low to a target in the 2207 area.   Wave (1) of minor A completed at 2163 and wave (2) retraced nearly 100% to 2120.  Wave (3) is currently underway with an initial target of 2191, where (3)=1.62*(1).  Once wave minor A completes around 2207, there should be a minor B consolidation above the 2176 pivot before the final minor C of major [5] rises to the P5=0.62*P1 target at 2246.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that wave minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 is playing out as a double Zig-Zag to a Fibonacci retrace target of 50%/62% at 2093/2069.   Wave (w) of minor 2 completed at 2119 and wave (x) at 2163.  Wave (y) of minor is currently underway headed for (y)=(w) target of 2088.   From a minor 2 low at 2093, the minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 target is 2342.   The major [3] target is at 1.62*[1] = 2496.  The P5=P1 target is 2514 to complete the Cycle 1 wave.  Note alternate (blue) count would be confirmed on a move above 2321, which invalidates the primary (green) ED P5-C1 count.

The alternate (red) wave count has topped major [5]-P5-C1 at 2194 and the LT (long-term) Cycle (C2) wave down towards a 50% Fibonacci retrace of C1 at 1428 is about to get underway.  It will take a break above 2194 invalidate the (red) count and below 1992 to confirm it.

SP-500 15-min chart:

pug-sp-500-15-min-9-15-16

SP-500 60-min chart:

pug-sp-500-60-min-9-15-16

SP-500 4-hr chart:

pug-sp-500-4-hr-9-15-16

SP-500 daily chart:

pug-sp-500-daily-9-15-16

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