PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

September 13th, 2016: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 13, 2016

5:05 pm EST:  The $NYMO, VIX and SPX all closed outside their respective BB’s today, triggering step 1 of a triple SPX Buy Signal.  This is the 2nd such triple SPX Buy Signal in the past 3 days (Friday and again today Tuesday).  With the $NYMO in oversold territory below -40 (at -61) this often times leads to big move up in the SPX price in the coming days.  There however is always the small probability that once the $NYMO gets oversold below -40, a SPX crash scenario can unfold.  So even with this 12nd triple SPX Buy Signal it is not 100% reliable.

The primary (green) wave count is that the major [4]-P5-C1 correction completed at the 38% Fibonacci retrace target of 2117.  With the SPX major [4]-P5 wave move below the major [1]-P5 high of 2121, it means that the P5-C1 wave is playing out as an Ending Diagonal (ED) that must complete below 2321, where major [5] < [3] < [1].   The P5=0.62*P1 target is at 2246.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that wave minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 is playing out as a double Zig-Zag to a Fibonacci retrace target of 50%/62% at 2093/2069.   From the minor 2 low at 2093, the minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 target is 2342.   The major [3] target is at 1.62*[1] = 2496.  The P5=P1 target is 2514 to complete the Cycle 1 wave.  Note alternate (blue) count would be confirmed on a move above 2321, which invalidates the primary (green) ED P5-C1 count.

The alternate (red) wave count has topped major [5]-P5-C1 at 2194 and the LT (long-term) Cycle (C2) wave down towards a 50% Fibonacci retrace of C1 at 1428 is about to get underway.  It will take a break below 1992 to confirm the alternate (red) count.

SP-500 15-min chart:

pug-sp-500-15-min-9-13-16

SP-500 60-min chart:

pug-sp-500-60-min-9-13-16

SP-500 4-hr chart:

pug-ps-500-4-hr-9-13-16

SP-500 daily chart:

pug-ps-500-daily-9-13-16

 

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