PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

June 21st, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on June 21, 2016

4:45 pm EST:   Quite day overall for the SP-500 as it was range bound between 2083 and 2093.

The primary (green) wave count is that wave minor 1 of major [5]-P5-C1 peaked at 2121 and wave minor 2 retraced 78% to 2050.   The minor 3 of major [5] wave should be underway and will make a new ATH above 2135.   Basis minor 2 at 2050, minor 3=1 at 2145.   Within the minor 3, minute (1) completed at 2080, minute (2) at 2063 and now minute (3) is headed for 2142 target, where (3)=2.62*(1).  Within minute (3), wave i-(3) completed at 2101 and wave ii-(3) has retraced about 50% to 2083.   Wave iii-(3) up should be underway, but needs to break above 2101.   The major [5]=[1] target is at 2161 and the P5=0.5*P1 target is at 2162, which is the minimum for completing this P5-C1 wave up.  The primary (green) count remains valid above 2050.

The alternate (blue) wave count is simply a more bullish intermediate term (IT) version of the primary (green) wave count.   Wave minor 1 of major [5]-P5-C1 completed at 2121 and wave minor 2 completed at the 78% Fib retrace of 2050.   Wave minor 3 should target 2201, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  The P5=0.62*P1 target is at 2246.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid above 2050.

The second alternate (pink) wave count is that major [1]-P5-C1 peaked at 2121.  The major [2] correction is underway that should retrace 38%/50% to 2003/1966 over the next couple of weeks.  The drop from 2121 to 2050 was minor A of major [2] and now the bounce to 2101 was near the 78% retrace of 2106 for the minor B wave.   The minor C wave is underway and should target C=A=2030 or C=1.62*A = 1986.  Once major [2] completes, major [3] should head much higher above 2400 to a target of major [3]=1.62[1] = 2470 (basis major [2] = 1966).   The P5=P1 target is at 2513.  The second alternate (pink) wave count remains valid below 2121.

Note:  The key levels to watch are 2050 to the downside and 2121 to the upside.  Once one of those levels break the wave count should become clear.

SP-500 15-min chart:

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 6-21-16

SP-500 60-min chart:

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 6-21-16

SP-500 4-hr chart:

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 6-21-16

SP-500 daily chart:

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 6-21-16

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