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May 20th, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on May 20, 2016

3:00 pm EST:   Bears failed to hold the break down below 2034 yesterday and today the SPX price moved up to 2058 and into key MA resistance (13-day EMA 2057, 34-day EMA 2057 , and 50-day SMA 2060).   A break above area should lead to a move up to the 2094 pivot area late next week.

The primary (red) count is that wave (1) of minor 1 of major [3]-PC-C2 completed at 2039 and that wave minute (2) of minor 1 is forming an expanded flat wave that should retrace 62%/78% to 2079/2092 forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top (2111) that measures to 2034 – (2111-2034) = 1957.  The primary (red) count remains valid for wave (2) below 2111.

The new alternate (blue) count is that Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V (C1-SCV) is on its last gasp to a marginal new All-Time High (ATH).   For this wave count, P4-C1 completed in February 2016 at 1812 and the final P5-C1 wave up has been underway ever since then.  P5 waves are typically quite weak and short in duration, so I’d expect P5-C1 to only slightly exceed 2135 (P5=0.5*P1=2162) and complete in the next month.  The move up off 1812 completed major [1] at 1947, major [2] at 1891 and major [3] at 2111.  The major [4] correction has been underway since the 2111 peak.   A typical major [4] wave retraces to 38% Fibonacci level, which was hit at the 2026 low.  Basis 2026 as the a major [4] low, the major [5]=[1] target is 2161 for the completion of P5-C1.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid for major [4] above major [1] at 1947.

Have a wonderful weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 5-20-16

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 5-20-16

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 5-20-16

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 5-20-16

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 5-20-16

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