PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

May 19th, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on May 19, 2016

5:10 pm EST:  Today the SP-500 price broke down below 2034 eliminating the alternate (blue) count as labeled.  However, the choppiness of the price action since the April 20th high at 2111 looks corrective and brings up a possible new alternate (blue) count shown on the charts below.

The primary (red) count is that wave (1) of minor 1 of major [3]-PC-C2 completed at 2039 and that wave minute (2) completed at the 62% Fibonacci retrace of 2085 forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top (2111) that measures to 2034 – (2111-2034) = 1957.    Wave (3) down is underway with a target at 1967, where (3)=1.62(1) and the minor 1 target is the 1956 pivot. Within wave (3), wave i-(3) completed at 2043 and wave ii-(3) at 2061.  Wave iii-(3) is underway headed for target of iii = 1.62*i = 1993.   The primary (red) count remains valid below 2111.

The new alternate (blue) count is that Cycle 1 of Super Cycle 2 (C1-SCV) is on its last gasp to a marginal new All-Time High (ATH).   For this wave count, P4-C1 completed in February 2016 at 1812 and the final P5-C1 wave up has been underway ever since then.  P5 waves are typically quite weak and short in duration, so I’d expect P5-C1 to only slightly exceed 2135 and complete in the next month.  The move up off 1812 completed major [1] at 1947, major [2] at 1891 and major [3] at 2111.  The major [4] correction has been underway since the 2111 peak.   A typical major [4] wave retraces to 38% Fibonacci level, which was hit today at the 2026 low.  Basis 2026 as the a major [4] low, the major [5]=[1] target is 2161 for the completion of P5-C1.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid for major [4] above major [1] at 1947.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 5-19-16

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 5-19-16

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 5-19-16

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 5-19-16

 

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