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January 12th, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 12, 2016

4:40 pm EST:   The VIX closed red today and confirmed its step 3 of the SPX Buy Signal.  The SPX closed back inside it lower BB and confirmed its step 2 of the SPX Buy Signal.  The $NYMO closed green confirming a +Div with the mid-Dec SPX price low of 1993 vs 1901.  These three non-E-wave based technical analysis indicators are more consistent with a several week to a month-long rally in the SPX price, which favors the alternate (blue) wave count or modified primary (red) count with the major [1]-PC low at 1901 and now a major [2] retrace of 50%/62% to 2008/2034.  As always, I will monitor the SPX price action the next few days and adjust the wave count according.

The primary red count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 target area.   Within PC, the major [1] wave is underway headed for the 1884/1905 pivot area.   This first minor 1 of major [1] wave completed at the 2019 pivot.   The minor 2 of major [1] wave ended at the 88% Fib retrace of 2104.  Wave minor 3 completed at 1901, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1.    The minor 4 consolidation is underway to the 23%/38% retrace of 1948/1978, before a final minor 5 of major [1] low near the 1884 pivot.  The primary red count remains valid below the Primary B (PB) high of 2116.

The alternate blue count is that Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) has one more push up above the 2135 level coming of the Primary 4 (P4) low of 1872 from September.   The final P5 target is at either the P5=0.50*P1 at 2224 or P5=0.62*P1 at 2308.   Within P5, the major [1] completed at 2116 and now major [2] is completing as a minor W-X-Y Double Zig-Zag that has retraced 88% to 1901.  It looks like a wave (1), (2) start to minor 1 of major [3]-P5 here at 1947 and 1914.  Wave (3) up should be underway with a target at 2035, where (3)=2.62*(1).  The minor 1 target is at the 2079 pivot area.   The alternate blue count remains valid as long the major [2] wave remains above the Primary 4 (P4) of 1872.

Finally there is also a large P4-C1 triangle variant of the alternate blue count that would be in a major [C] wave down complete at 1901, a major [D] wave up underway to the 2079 pivot and a final major [E] wave down to the 1956/1926 pivot to complete P4-C1 before and impulse P5 wave to the final C1 top at SPX 2300.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 1-12-16

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 1-12-16

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 1-12-16

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 1-12-16

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 1-12-16

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