PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

December 2nd, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on December 2, 2015

4:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 price turned around today right where it was forecast to do so at 2104 (88% Fib) in order to keep the bearish primary (red) wave count alive.  Now the SP-500 price must break below the 2019 pivot in an impulsive move lower to confirm.   If not, then the bullish alternate (blue) wave count remains a good possibility going into the end of the year.

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 target area.   This first minor 1 of major [1]-PC wave completed at the 2019 pivot.   The minor 2 of major [1] bounce ended at the 88% Fib of 2104 or the (c)=0.5(a) at 2109.  Wave minor 3 should now drop below the 2019 pivot to the 1926/1905 pivot area, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1.   The red count remains valid as long as the minor 2 of major [1] wave remains below the PB high of 2116.

The alternate (blue) count is that Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) has one more push up above the 2135 level coming of the Primary 4 (P4) low of 1867 from August.   The 2116 level was the major [3]-P5 high and the drop from 2116 to 2019 is a typical 38% retrace (2023) for the major [4]-P5 wave.  Wave major [5] is underway from 2019 and should reach at least to the double bottom target of 2170 or the P5=0.5*P1 target at 2219.   Within major [5] there should be 5 minor waves higher.  Minor 1 of major [5] completed at 2097 and wave minor 2 took the form of a flat wave that either completed today at 2077 where (c)=(a) or will test the 50% Fib retrace at 2060 where (c)=1.62(a).   Once minor 2 is complete, the minor 3 wave should make a new all-time high above 2135, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 at 2186.  The blue count remains valid as long as the minor 2 of major [5] wave remains above the major [4] low of 2019.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 12-2-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 12-2-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 12-2-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 12-2-15

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