PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

November 23rd, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on November 23, 2015

5:10 pm EST:   So far the waves down have not been impulsive since the 2097 high.  The $NYMO is at the zero line and threatening to confirm an IT impulsive move higher on a close above +20.   The SP-500 daily MACD is nearing a bull cross, the 200-day SMA has turned back up at 2066, and the 2079 pivot support is holding thus far.  All of this favors the alternate (blue) count playing up to a new high above 2135 going into the end of the year.   The SP-500 weekly MACD has also crossed the above the zero line and is pointing up at a 45 degree angle, which is IT bullish.  On the daily chart there is Cup & Handle (C&H) pattern with a measured move target of 2116 – (2116-2019) = 2213.  A break above 2116 will confirm the move up to 2213.

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 target area.   This first minor 1 of major [1]-PC wave completed at the 2019 pivot.   The minor 2 bounce looks to have concluded at the 78% Fib retrace of 2095.  Wave minor 3 should now drop below 1991 pivot to the 1926/1905 pivot area, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  The first minute wave (1) of minor 3 should reach the 2046 pivot area next week (see 15/60-min charts details).   The red count remains valid as long this minor 2 wave bounce remains below 2116.

The alternate (blue) count is that Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) has one more push up above the 2135 level coming of the Primary 4 (P4) low of 1867 from August.   The 2116 level was the major [3]-P5 high and the drop from 2116 to 2019 is a typical 38% retrace (2023) for the major [4]-P5 wave.  Wave major [5] is underway from 2019 and should reach at least to the [5]=[1] target 2145.  There is also a double bottom target of 2170 and P5=0.5*P1 target at 2219.   Within major [5] there should be 5 minor waves higher.  Minor 1 of major [5] looks to have completed at 2067 and the wave 2 retrace of near 50% ended at 2046.   Wave minor 3 is underway and should make a new high above 2135, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 2169.  Within minor 3, wave (1) completed at 2097, wave (2) may have completed to at 2081, where c=a and now wave (3) of minor 3 is under head to a (3)=1.62(1) target of 2164 (see details on the 15/60-min charts).   The blue count remains valid above the major [4] low of 2019.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 11-23-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 11-23-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 11-23-15

SP-500 daily chat (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 11-23-15


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