PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

November 17th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on November 17, 2015

4:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price move up off the 2019 pivot failed today precisely were in needed to for the primary (red) count at the 13-day EMA (2064) and 200-day SMA (2064) resistance.

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 target area.   This first minor 1 of major [1]-PC wave completed at the 2019 pivot.   The minor 2 bounce is underway that should retrace 50%/62% to 2068/2079 before wave minor 3 drops below 1991 pivot to the 1926/1905 pivot area, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  Today’s high of 2067 likely completed the minor 2 wave at the 50% Fib retrace and the falling 13-day EMA (2064) and 200-day SMA (2064) resistance.  The minor 3 wave is likely underway headed below the 2019/1993 pivots.    The red count remains valid as long this minor 2 wave bounce remains below 2116.

The alternate (blue) count is that Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) has one more push up above the 2135 level.   The 2116 level was the major [3]-P5 high and the drop from 2116 to 2019 is a typical 38% retrace (2023) for the major [4]-P5 wave.  Wave major [5] is underway from 2019 and should reach at least to the [5]=[1] target 2145.  There is also a double bottom target of 2170 and P5=0.5*P1 target at 2219.   Within major [5] there should be 5 minor waves higher.  Minor 1 of major [5] looks to have completed at 2067 (see details on the 15-min/60-min charts) and the wave 2 retrace is underway that should retrace 50%/62% to 2043/2037.   Once minor 2 complete minor 3 should make a new high above 2135, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 2169.   The blue count remains valid above the major [4] low of 2019.

Note:  On the SP-500 weekly chart with indicators below there is a year long rounded top pattern with -DIV on RSI, MACD and Full STO.  The round top measured move target is at 1599, which agrees with the primary (red) wave count.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 11-17-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 11-17-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 11-17-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Daily EOD 11-17-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Weekly EOD 11-17-15

SP-500 weekly chart with indicators (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Weekly Chart 11-17-15

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