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October 2nd, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 2, 2015

6:00 pm EST:  The SP-500 price dropped from 1924 to 1894 at the open then climbed rapidly all day to finish on the highs at 1951.  This is a very large (+57 point, +3.0%) intra-day reversal that typically will have legs into the next few trading days to a couple of weeks.  The $NYMO also closed back above zero at +22 today, which is a sign of a strong bull wave breadth.  The red count is unchanged, however the blue count needs revised to PB-C2 as on a going flat wave that should once again test the 2019 to 2046 pivot area.   At this point based on today’s price action and the large weekly SPX hammer candle, I would favor the blue count, but I will not call the blue or the red the primary count until more waves are seen next week.


The Red count is that major [1]-PC-C2 completed at 1872 and the major [2] counter-trend rally is underway.  The typical major [2] wave 50%/62%/78% Fibonacci retrace is at 1947/1964/1988, which is right at the overhead resistance band of the 1956 pivot, the 34-day EMA (1966) and 1971/1983 horizontal resistance.   Within major [2], minor A completed at 1927 and then minor B retraced 62% to 1894.  Minor C is underway with a C=1.38*A target of 1970 or a C=1.62*A target of 1983.  Note that major [2] must remain below 2021 in order for the red count to remain valid.  Once major [2] completes, there will be a very large major [3]-PC wave lower toward a target of 1666, where major [3] = 2.0*[1].   Ultimately Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) should reach the May 2000 and October 2007 highs (support) near 1555 to 1575.  Notice the large Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart with Head at 2135, Neckline at 1844, and target of 1844 – (2135 – 1844) = 1553.

The Blue count is that PB-C2 is playing out as a major [A]-[B]-[C], 3-3-5 wave structure Flat wave, that will once again test the 2019 to 2046 pivot resistance, where the PA-C2 break-down occurred in August.   Once PB-C2 completes, the largest Cycle 2 (C2) wave Primary (PC) will drop much lower than 1867 into next year.   Within PB, the 5-wave structure major [C] wave is underway off the recent 1872 low.   With in major [C], wave minor 1 completed at 1927, wave minor 2 was a 62% Fib retrace to 1894.  Now wave minor 3 is underway with a target of 1983, where M3 = 1.62*M1.  There should then be a 23% Fib retrace to 1963, followed by M5=M1 move to 2018.  The major [C]=[A] target is 2026 to complete the PB Flat.  The 62% retrace target for PB is at 2033.  Thus, there is a confluence of PB target in the 2019 to 2046 resistance band.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 10-2-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 10-2-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 10-2-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 10-2-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 10-2-15


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