Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with Gold technical analysis, stock analysis and more. Read our technical analysis blog to learn more today.

October 2nd, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 2, 2015

6:00 pm EST:  The SP-500 price dropped from 1924 to 1894 at the open then climbed rapidly all day to finish on the highs at 1951.  This is a very large (+57 point, +3.0%) intra-day reversal that typically will have legs into the next few trading days to a couple of weeks.  The $NYMO also closed back above zero at +22 today, which is a sign of a strong bull wave breadth.  The red count is unchanged, however the blue count needs revised to PB-C2 as on a going flat wave that should once again test the 2019 to 2046 pivot area.   At this point based on today’s price action and the large weekly SPX hammer candle, I would favor the blue count, but I will not call the blue or the red the primary count until more waves are seen next week.

The Red count is that major [1]-PC-C2 completed at 1872 and the major [2] counter-trend rally is underway.  The typical major [2] wave 50%/62%/78% Fibonacci retrace is at 1947/1964/1988, which is right at the overhead resistance band of the 1956 pivot, the 34-day EMA (1966) and 1971/1983 horizontal resistance.   Within major [2], minor A completed at 1927 and then minor B retraced 62% to 1894.  Minor C is underway with a C=1.38*A target of 1970 or a C=1.62*A target of 1983.  Note that major [2] must remain below 2021 in order for the red count to remain valid.  Once major [2] completes, there will be a very large major [3]-PC wave lower toward a target of 1666, where major [3] = 2.0*[1].   Ultimately Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) should reach the May 2000 and October 2007 highs (support) near 1555 to 1575.  Notice the large Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart with Head at 2135, Neckline at 1844, and target of 1844 – (2135 – 1844) = 1553.

The Blue count is that PB-C2 is playing out as a major [A]-[B]-[C], 3-3-5 wave structure Flat wave, that will once again test the 2019 to 2046 pivot resistance, where the PA-C2 break-down occurred in August.   Once PB-C2 completes, the largest Cycle 2 (C2) wave Primary (PC) will drop much lower than 1867 into next year.   Within PB, the 5-wave structure major [C] wave is underway off the recent 1872 low.   With in major [C], wave minor 1 completed at 1927, wave minor 2 was a 62% Fib retrace to 1894.  Now wave minor 3 is underway with a target of 1983, where M3 = 1.62*M1.  There should then be a 23% Fib retrace to 1963, followed by M5=M1 move to 2018.  The major [C]=[A] target is 2026 to complete the PB Flat.  The 62% retrace target for PB is at 2033.  Thus, there is a confluence of PB target in the 2019 to 2046 resistance band.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 10-2-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 10-2-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 10-2-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 10-2-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 10-2-15


Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

%d bloggers like this: