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October 1st, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 1, 2015

6:30 pm EST:   The SP-500 price reached the 1926 pivot and 38% retrace today was rejected and tested the 1905 pivot support.  The 1905 pivot support held and a second attempt to break the 1926 pivot resistance is underway at the close today.

Primary (red) count is that major [1]-PC-C2 completed at 1872 and the major [2] counter-trend rally is underway.  The typical major [2] 50%/62% Fibonacci retrace is at 1947/1964, which is right at the overhead resistance band of the 1956 pivot and the falling 13-day EMA (1931) and 34-day EMA (1967). Within major [2], minor A completed at 1917 and then minor B retraced 50% to 1897/1901 at a flat wave.  Minor C is underway with a C=A target of 1946.  Note that major [2] must remain below 2021 in order for the primary count to remain valid.  Once major [2] completes, there will be a very large major [3]-PC wave lower toward a target of 1649, where major [3] = 2.0*[1].   Ultimately Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) should reach the May 2000 and October 2007 highs (support) near 1555 to 1575.  Notice the large Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart with Head at 2135, Neckline at 1844, and target of 1844 – (2135 – 1844) = 1553.

The alternate (blue) count is that the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is still in the Primary A (PA) wave and this current move down from 2021 is the final major [5]-PA-C2 wave with a target between the 1849 and 1814 pivots.  For major [5], minor 1 completed at 1872 and this move up from 1872 to 1927 (so far) is the minor 2 wave that should retrace 38%/50% to 1929/1947.  Note that the minor 2 can’t exceed 2021 in order keep the alternate count valid.  After minor 2 completes, waves minor 3 and minor 4 might complete an Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern down to the PA low around 1849 to 1814.   Once PA completes, there will be a large PB wave rally to retrace 50%/62% (1992/2026) of PA that can not exceed the Cycle 1 (C1) high of 2135.  The final outcome of this alternate (blue) count is the same as the primary count, except the PB rally back to the 2046 pivot resistance into year end 2015 will delay start of the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave lower to the 1555 target by about 2 to 3 months.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 10-1-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 10-1-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 10-1-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 10-1-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 10-1-15

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