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September 4th, 2015: SP-500 Mid-day/EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on September 4, 2015

12:30 pm EST:   The SP-500 price is trapped in a contracting triangle range between 1903 and 1993.  The is a the potential for a rapid 90 point move up (primary count) or down (alternate count) out of this range.  The probability is about equal.

The primary (white/green) count found the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) low at 1867.  The SP-500 is experiencing a bounce for the Primary B (PB) wave that should reach the 62%/78% retrace target of 2033/2076 into mid-to-late September.   After PB-C2 completes, there should be a much bigger drop for the PC-C2 wave that should reach the 1575 pivot area (i.e. the year 2007 high) into mid-year 2016 (see the weekly chart for the big picture view).  The details for the PB wave are shown on the 15-min and 60-min charts.  It looks like the major [A]-PB wave completed at 1993 and now a major [B] contracting triangle has formed.  The drop from 1993 to 1903 is minor A of major [B], the move up from 1903 to 1975 is minor B, and now the drop to 1920 (thus far) is minor C.  Once the minor C wave complete above 1903, there should be minor D wave up to the 1956, and minor E wave to the 1926 pivot to complete the major [B] triangle.   After major [B] completes, the major [C]-PB wave should head for the 2046 pivot.  A break below 1903 invalidate the major [B] triangle can confirm the alternate (blue) count major [5]-PA wave headed for the 1865 to 1849 target.

The alternate (blue) count version of the primary count has the Primary (A) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave still underway with the major [3]-PA low at 1867.  This move up from 1867 is a major wave [4] triangle.   Within major [4], the minor A wave reached 1993, minor B dropped to 1903 and the minor C wave hit the 1975 target.   The minor D wave has hit 1920 (thus) and once complete above 1903 there should be minor E wave up to the 1956 pivot to complete the major [4] triangle wave.  Once the major [4] triangle completes there will be a major [5] wave drop to a new low below 1867 with a major [5] = [1] target of 1865.  There is also a 88% retrace of the P5-C1 wave up from 1814 to 2135 at a target of 1857 and 1849 pivot support to complete this PA-C1 wave.  Note that a move above 1975 would invalidate the major [4] triangle and confirm the primary count PC wave headed for the 2033-2044 target.

SP-500 15-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart MD 9-4-15

SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart MD 9-4-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart MD 9-4-15

SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 daily chart MD 9-4-15

SP-500 weekly chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart MD 9-4-15

 

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