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September 2nd, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on September 2, 2015

5:50 pm EST:  Time to focus on the highest probability (80%) primary wave count and a couple of versions of how it may play out over the next two weeks.  It’s possible the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) low is not in place at 1867 and what is going on right now is large triangle major [4]-PA wave that will finish up around the 1956 pivot in the next few days and then test the 1849 pivot setting the final PA-C2 low.  This is the new alternate (blue) count version of the primary wave count and is now show on the charts.  The new alternate (blue) count only changes the short-term forecast but does not change the longer-term outlook for the primary wave count that has the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is underway headed for 1575 into year 2016.   I’m eliminating the ultra-bullish Primary 5 (P5) on going bull Cycle 1 (C1) wave previously shown on the charts.  This scenario is currently under a low probability (20%) and won’t be considered again unless the SPX 2044 area is exceeded.

The primary (white/green) count found the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) low at 1867.  The SP-500 is experiencing a strong bounce for the Primary B (PB) wave that should reach the 62%/78% retrace target of 2033/2076 into mid-to-late September.   After PB-C2 completes, there should be a much bigger drop for the PC-C2 wave that should reach the 1575 pivot area (i.e. the year 2007 high) into mid-year 2016.  The details for the PB wave are shown on the 15-min and 60-min charts.  It looks like the major [A]-PB wave completed at 1990.  The drop from 1990 to 1903 today, is between a 62% (1914) and 78% (1894) retrace for the major [B]-PB wave to the 1926/1905 pivot area.  The major [B] wave took the form of an expanded flat wave (A 1948, B 1993, C 1903).  The major [C]-PB wave is now underway likely headed for the 2046 pivot.   The primary count remains valid for the PB-C2 wave below the May 2015 high of 2135.

The alternate (blue) count version of the primary count has the Primary (A) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave still underway with the major [3]-PA low at 1867.  This move up from 1867 is a major wave [4] triangle.   Within major [4], the minor A wave reached 1993, minor B dropped to 1903 and now the minor C wave is headed for 1975-1980.   There should still be a minor D wave drop to the 1926 pivot and minor E wave up to the 1956 pivot to complete the major [4] triangle wave.  Once the major [4] triangle completes there will be a major [5] wave drop to a new low below 1867 with a major [5] = 1.62*[1] target of 1846.  There is also a 88% retrace of the P5-C1 wave up from 1814 to 2135 at a target of 1857 and 1849 pivot support to complete this PA-C1 wave.  Note that a move above 1993 would invalidate the major [4] triangle and confirm the primary count PB Zig-Zag headed for the 2033 target.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 9-2-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 9-2-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 9-2-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 9-2-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 9-2-15

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