Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with Gold technical analysis, stock analysis and more. Read our technical analysis blog to learn more today.

September 2nd, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on September 2, 2015

5:50 pm EST:  Time to focus on the highest probability (80%) primary wave count and a couple of versions of how it may play out over the next two weeks.  It’s possible the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) low is not in place at 1867 and what is going on right now is large triangle major [4]-PA wave that will finish up around the 1956 pivot in the next few days and then test the 1849 pivot setting the final PA-C2 low.  This is the new alternate (blue) count version of the primary wave count and is now show on the charts.  The new alternate (blue) count only changes the short-term forecast but does not change the longer-term outlook for the primary wave count that has the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is underway headed for 1575 into year 2016.   I’m eliminating the ultra-bullish Primary 5 (P5) on going bull Cycle 1 (C1) wave previously shown on the charts.  This scenario is currently under a low probability (20%) and won’t be considered again unless the SPX 2044 area is exceeded.

The primary (white/green) count found the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) low at 1867.  The SP-500 is experiencing a strong bounce for the Primary B (PB) wave that should reach the 62%/78% retrace target of 2033/2076 into mid-to-late September.   After PB-C2 completes, there should be a much bigger drop for the PC-C2 wave that should reach the 1575 pivot area (i.e. the year 2007 high) into mid-year 2016.  The details for the PB wave are shown on the 15-min and 60-min charts.  It looks like the major [A]-PB wave completed at 1990.  The drop from 1990 to 1903 today, is between a 62% (1914) and 78% (1894) retrace for the major [B]-PB wave to the 1926/1905 pivot area.  The major [B] wave took the form of an expanded flat wave (A 1948, B 1993, C 1903).  The major [C]-PB wave is now underway likely headed for the 2046 pivot.   The primary count remains valid for the PB-C2 wave below the May 2015 high of 2135.

The alternate (blue) count version of the primary count has the Primary (A) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave still underway with the major [3]-PA low at 1867.  This move up from 1867 is a major wave [4] triangle.   Within major [4], the minor A wave reached 1993, minor B dropped to 1903 and now the minor C wave is headed for 1975-1980.   There should still be a minor D wave drop to the 1926 pivot and minor E wave up to the 1956 pivot to complete the major [4] triangle wave.  Once the major [4] triangle completes there will be a major [5] wave drop to a new low below 1867 with a major [5] = 1.62*[1] target of 1846.  There is also a 88% retrace of the P5-C1 wave up from 1814 to 2135 at a target of 1857 and 1849 pivot support to complete this PA-C1 wave.  Note that a move above 1993 would invalidate the major [4] triangle and confirm the primary count PB Zig-Zag headed for the 2033 target.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 9-2-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 9-2-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 9-2-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 9-2-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 9-2-15

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

%d bloggers like this: