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August 23rd, 2015: SP-500 EOD (Aug 21st) Update

Posted by pugsma on August 23, 2015

1:30 pm EST:   OK I’m finally getting around to updating the SP-500 charts after a busy past few days of moving my two sons back to college on Wednesday-Saturday.  Long-time PUG SMA subscribers (6+ years) know that the SP-500 loves to completely collapse when I’m is away from the office/charts (eg. my week long family vacation in early August 2011, when the SP-500 corrected nearly 20% during wave P2-C1).  Things have gone pretty much a forecast since I indicated on August 4th that the SP-500 rounded top would target the 1954 area (see SP-500 chart below from August 4th).  Also things have been pretty much on forecast since calling the potential Cycle 1 (C1) top at 2135 back on June 23rd (see the SP-500 monthly chart from June 23rd).  Hopefully most PUG SMA subscribers profited (being short SPX) or at least were in cash and protected from the SP-500 large drop this past week.

SP-500 Daily Chart with Indicators from August 4th, 2015:


SP-500 Monthly Chart From June 23rd, 2015:


Now enough about the past, so where does the SP-500 go from here?

With the break of the SPX 2044 level, the primary (white/green) count is right on track looking for Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) low in the 1951 to 1940 area (62% retrace of 1820 to 2135) in the coming days.  As has been shown here for better than a month, there is rounded to pattern on the SP-500 with a target at 1953 [2044 – (2044-2135)].   It looks like the major [3]-PA wave likely completed on Friday at 1971, just below the major [3]=1.62[1] = 1986 target.  Now there should be a major [4] wave that will retrace 23%/38% to the 2008/2032 area.  Assuming the major [4] low at the 23% retrace of 2008, the major [5]=0.62[1] target is 1951 to complete the PA wave.  Should the SP-500 price break through the 1951 to 1940, there is lower potential target at the 78% retrace of 1889.  After PA completes around 1954/1940 there should be a PB wave bounce to the 62%/78% retrace target of 2061/2092 followed by a much bigger drop for PC-C2 that should reach the 1575 pivot area (year 2007 old ATH) in mid-to-late year 2016.  Note that a move above the major [1]-PA low of 2044, would mean that PA wave has bottomed and that the PB wave bounce is underway.  PB should not move above 2135 and if it does the primary count is invalid and the alternate (blue) is confirmed.

The alternate (blue) has the May SP-500 2135 high labeled at the end of the Primary 3 (P3) of Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  Thus the C1 wave is still on gong and will ultimately make a new All-Time High (ATH) above 2315 going into the years 2016/2107.   This correction occuring now is the Primary 4 (P4) of C1 wave.  It has either bottomed on Friday at 1971, just below the major [C]=1.62[A]=1986 target or will need a slightly lower low at 1951, where [C]=2.00[A], after a minor 4 of major [C] bounce to the 23%/38% retrace target of 2001/2021.  Note a move above the minor 1 low of 2064, will indicate the P4-C1 bottom is in place for this alternate (blue) count.  The alternate (blue) count can theoretically remain valid all the way down to the P1-C1 high of 1371.  However, realistically the P4-C1 wave should hold above the Oct 2014 low of 1820, which was the major [4]-P3-C1 wave low.   A typical wave 4, 23% retrace for P4-C1 is at 1891.  So should the SP-500 break below 1951, then look for this 1891 area.  There is a major [C]=2.62[A] target at 1895.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD, 8-21-15):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 8-21-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD, 8-21-15):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 8-21-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD, 8-21-15):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 8-21-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD, 8-21-15):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 8-21-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD, 8-21-15):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 8-21-15

SP-500 monthly chart (EOD, 8-21-15):

PUG SP-500 monthly EOD 8-21-15


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